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I must confess that a recession is on my mind. It is the decline in the markets coupled with the recession currently occurring in the goods producing sectors which has me looking harder for a decline...

A headline that says a recession is coming can never be wrong. There WILL be a recession in the future. The questions are: when, how big, and what are the causes. The USA and global economies are...

The current contraction of the markets was unforeseen in my view of events of 2016. Mild corrections OK. Large upward or downward movements possible but not probable. This is NOT a good start to...

This may be a boring subject to many - construction spending. This past week the U.S. Census unveiled a "processing error".Follow up: The statement in the November 2015 construction spending release...

Going into 2016, I was trying to anticipate positive headlines. One potential positive was in the headlines this past week - Median Household Income Back at Level When Great Recession Began in...

It is important to document one's view of the future as it is a test of understanding and the weighting of current events - especially economic forecasts. I say current events because the economy does...

All pundits need something really good or really bad to write about. Few want to read analysis saying the porridge is just right. 2015 was not overall a good year for USA investors. Economically, the...

I am amused by the constant discussion by the Federal Reserve governors and the Fed Chair about raising the federal funds rate. As next week is the last FOMC meeting of the year - this is the last...

Last week I penned Income Improving Nicely - Expenditures Not. Maybe Personal Debt Is Becoming Too Large. This post was silent on other reasons which could be causing sluggish spending growth.Follow...

This past week, data from the BEA showed personal income was improving nicely whilst consumer spending was muddling along.Follow up: This is not a brand new trend but has been occurring for most of...

We may be near the trough for the weak data period. There is no analytical basis for this statement - but it does have a basis in logic. After all, the decline in the rate of economic growth began in...

I see that pundits and even Fed FOMC members are believing the labor market "improvement" will allow the FOMC to raise the zero bound federal funds rate when the Fed meets on December 15 later this...

It has been ages since I have have gone on a rampage concerning the bean-counterization of the private sector. One cannot blame Obama (or Bush or Clinton, Reagan et al), the political parties, or even...

Do investors really understand the economy or the business cycle? The recent surge in the market indices questions whether the markets believe there is a relationship.Follow up: As I have said many...

This was one of the slowest weeks I can remember in seeing new economic data released. In my usual weekly economic highlight, I try to hone in on an element which is positively or negatively affecting...

Data is data. It is cold and lifeless - and it takes some understanding of dynamics affecting that data set to provide context. I see one data set that makes no sense.Follow up: Historically, trade...