Econintersect LLC

Every quarter we are "surprised" by the headline GDP number which can go up, then down, then up ... The most recent quarter being reported says the real economy is growing at 4.2%.  Am I the only...

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) states "Productivity is a measure of economic efficiency which shows how effectively economic inputs are converted into output." To economists, productivity is the...

Economic discussions are interesting to me even though very little being stated as fact is provable except in theory.  Much of what you may believe as fact is actually opinion based on...

Professor Paul Krugman was at it last week when he opined: For more than three decades, almost everyone who matters in American politics has agreed that higher taxes on the rich and increased aid to...

Export and Import container counts continue on the roller coaster of one good month then one bad month - and this month is not so good. The 3 month rolling average for both exports and imports...

The common perception is that the personal savings rate is half of the savings rate in the 1950's, 1960's, and the 1970's. This perception is both true and misleading.Follow up:Personal saving, as...

I believe taxes are a punishment for doing something wrong. The USA does not tax money flows it wants to occur by creating tax loopholes.Follow up: The Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) folks believe that...

Last week my post concentrated on prime interest rates' relationship with the economy - and showed there was a general lack correlation between economic growth and the prime interest rates. With over...

Are interest rates too high stimulate the economy? Your initial reaction is likely that with the Federal Reserves' current zero interest rate policy interest rates cannot go any lower.Follow...

When it comes to employment statistics, it is pretty easy to prove any opinion. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) obliges our need for data by using two very different methodologies for compiling...

Economic theory is interesting. There never has been "scientific" proof documenting how any theory performs against the wide range of economic dynamics because there is no experimental control sample...

[Editors Note: This post was delayed due to problems at the US Census Website]US Census says manufacturing new orders declined. Our analysis agrees but indicates the decline was even worse. Although...

I have been entertained this past week by a series of posts on trade - but frightened by unenlightened thoughts expressed by a new Congressional leader.Follow up: Before looking at at any of these...

I have been fairly negative on the prospects for residential construction - this negativity was partially caused by the slowdown in existing home sales. Existing and new homes sales historically...

The week the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) issued their Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) - a report mostly ignored for good reason - it is hard to interpret the good and bad news in...

I am on record saying the data is forecasting a growing economy. I see NO evidence using any recession forecasting tools (or even the more recent new normal dynamics) which suggest a recession in the...