Bonds Analysis & Opinion

There’s little about recent history that reflects stability, with at least one exception: the average trailing payout rate on a globally diversified portfolio. There’s been a lot of churning in...

Here’s the annual returns for the various bond asset classes as of 10/31/24: The surprising metric as of 10/31/24, was the TLT or the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF’s (NASDAQ:TLT) 10-year annual...

Fifteen months ago, we contrarians started the bond bandwagon. It’s hard to believe now, but back then the financial suits hated fixed income. We faded their fears, bought bonds and benefited. Now,...

The market premium for the US 10-year Treasury yield rose in October relative to a “fair value” estimate calculated by CapitalSpectator.com. The increase marks the first time since April that the...

With all the euphoria in the market, junk bonds help calm the noise. Why? Because Firms that issue bonds are generally looking to raise capital for growth, expansion, debt restructuring or other...

In mid-September, the bond market looked set to coast to a second year of recovery after a bruising run of back-to-back losses in 2021 and 2023. Since then, the market has lost altitude. Although a...

The job report on Friday delivered a big downside surprise with just 12k jobs created in October. Certainly nowhere near my model’s estimates, but then again, given the size of revisions over the...

The Bond Market is saying “This Time is Different”. The Term Premium is on the rise, and it now sits close to the highest level for the last 10 years. But What is Term Premium? An investor looking...

Credit spreads have narrowed down to the lowest point since the pre-financial crisis period. It echoes the strength in the Stock market (and expensive valuations), and paradoxically is both: 1. a...

How I Use Bond Yields Every Day to Trade Forex. This is probably one of the most important videos you'll watch as a Forex trader. I hope you enjoy it

Earlier this month, while the US 10-year yield was at 3.9670%, we wrote that it was likely headed towards 5.50% in the months ahead. That prediction was based entirely on our Elliott Wave...

Since the end of 2023 and throughout most of 2024, the high-yield, high-debt bonds have been on a tear. However, the party could be over. Could be. I follow the junk bonds closely, as they literally...

Will the summer rally in bonds survive the autumn? Fresh doubts are bubbling as the market reconsiders a range of risk factors, including renewed skepticism about the Federal Reserve’s commitment to...

Stocks were modestly lower, but there was a clear risk-off tone throughout the day as rates rose sharply, along with the dollar. The CDX high-yield credit spread index also moved higher. Despite the...