Bonds Analysis & Opinion

The market premium for the US 10-year Treasury yield eased in December after rising for two straight months. The analysis uses a “fair value” estimate. Despite the downshift, the market continues to...

Interest rates continue to dominate our recent research. And rightfully so. Big swings in interest rates have ramifications for the domestic and global economy. Whether it is falling bond...

In just 4 years, the trend (and investment theme) of low interest rates has been turned on its head. During this time, home and auto loan rates have gone from consumer-friendly to unfriendly. Quite...

The chart below is the 10-year Treasury “yield” contract, traded at the CBOE. Readers can see a break in the chart in the upper-right-hand corner as the 10-year Treasury yield broke the downtrend...

Inflation risk is topical again, as I’ve been discussing this week. As a result, the bond market is demanding a higher yield premium to compensate for the possibility that inflation will be higher...

The backup in bond yields since mid-September did not surprise us. But it has surprised lots of other financial pundits, who are warning that this could be bad news for stocks. It could be,...

The question asked of us most often recently: “Why are bond yields rising?” After verbally answering it plenty of times, it’s time to put our answer in writing for everyone to see. The answer will...

The US economy continues to roar. December's ISM purchasing managers survey showed that services activity remains strong. The JOLTS data, albeit a bit stale from November, showed job openings jumped....

Here’s a decade-to-date total return chart for both theAGG ETF, and the Barclay’s US benchmark index courtesy of YCharts. This a grim chart for the AGG decade-to-date, as it shows a negative total...

We’ve followed the small business optimism and consumer sentiment indicators as a good barometer for the “mood” around the economy. However, these aren’t always great predictors of future economic...

For investors seeking tax-advantaged income, municipal bonds should not be the sole option considered in fixed income. Preferred securities, issued primarily by investment-grade companies, currently...

The market premium for the US 10-year Treasury yield continued to rebound in November vs. a “fair value” estimate calculated by CapitalSpectator.com. The increase marks the second straight monthly...

Yesterday, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell spoke. Some highlights U.S. BUDGET IS ON AN UNSUSTAINABLE PATH; REVENUE AND SPENDING NEED TO BE BETTER ALIGNED CENTRAL BANK CAN NOT TAKE...

1-year annual returns for a number of the bond market asset classes slid lower in November ’24, thanks primarily to the strong stock market rally after the re-election of President-elect Trump, but...