Bonds Analysis & Opinion

The market premium for the US 10-year Treasury yield ticked up in February to the highest spread since 2008. The estimate is based on the average “fair value” calculation via three models run by...

The Federal Reserve may continue to be patient before deciding on the next change in monetary policy, but the Treasury market isn’t waiting and has been rapidly adjusting to changing expectations for...

The year started out on a solid footing for the economy and the financial markets were pricing in expectations for sustained economic growth. But a lot has changed since the year’s optimistic...

When it comes to the economy, we’re in a bit of a weird spot: The data tells us that, despite inflation fears, interest rates are likely to fall in the year ahead. Falling rates point in one clear...

Sticky inflation risk is still a threat for the bond market, but concern that the US economy is slowing has become the main factor driving Treasury yields lower recently. The US 10-year yield...

What bulls do not want to see, is when the long bonds (which have turned around) outperform both the S&P 500 and the Junk Bonds.  Risk-Off (things have already changed since the weekend)  All...

Inflation concerns continue to lurk, but the US bond market is holding on to its rally so far this year, based on a set of ETFs through Wednesday’s close (Feb. 19). The investment-grade benchmark for...

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Yields on most assets around the world have edged higher this year. The increase reflects a range of concerns, including sticky inflation risk and greater uncertainty for global trade flows. The...

Many investors regard passively managed index mutual funds or ETFs as favorable options for stock investing. However, they may also find that actively managed funds offer substantial advantages for...

President Trump’s comments and executive orders have roiled markets and investor expectations, but from the vantage of the Treasury market, a relative calm prevails. This could change, of course, but...

Several risk factors that could end the bond market’s party, but for the moment US fixed-income markets are having a good year so far, based on prices through Thursday’s close (Jan. 30). Using a set...

We have repeated several times the importance and implications of rising/falling interest rates. And today we come back to this theme while discussing long-term US treasury bond yields. Above, we...

Is this the calm before the storm? Or has the danger passed? The bond market is focused on news and data in the days and weeks ahead that will provide context for answering these key questions....