Bonds Analysis & Opinion

President Trump’s latest announcement on tariffs is a reminder that macro uncertainty is high and will probably remain so for the near term. “What we’re going to be doing is a 25% tariff on all cars...

Let me start with a prediction: Interest rates are going to fall this year—and by more than most people think. When that happens, bonds—including one discounted 8.7%-paying bond fund we’ll get into...

The market premium for the US 10-year Treasury yield ticked up in February to the highest spread since 2008. The estimate is based on the average “fair value” calculation via three models run by...

The Federal Reserve may continue to be patient before deciding on the next change in monetary policy, but the Treasury market isn’t waiting and has been rapidly adjusting to changing expectations for...

The year started out on a solid footing for the economy and the financial markets were pricing in expectations for sustained economic growth. But a lot has changed since the year’s optimistic...

When it comes to the economy, we’re in a bit of a weird spot: The data tells us that, despite inflation fears, interest rates are likely to fall in the year ahead. Falling rates point in one clear...

What bulls do not want to see, is when the long bonds (which have turned around) outperform both the S&P 500 and the Junk Bonds.  Risk-Off (things have already changed since the weekend)  All...

At a time of increased uncertainty about inflation, the relatively elevated real yields available in inflation-indexed Treasuries offer a partial antidote of certainty for anxious investors. Using...

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The market premium for the US 10-year Treasury yield rebounded sharply in January, rising to its highest level in nine months, based on a “fair value” estimate calculated by CapitalSpectator.com....

Yields on most assets around the world have edged higher this year. The increase reflects a range of concerns, including sticky inflation risk and greater uncertainty for global trade flows. The...

Many investors regard passively managed index mutual funds or ETFs as favorable options for stock investing. However, they may also find that actively managed funds offer substantial advantages for...

President Trump’s comments and executive orders have roiled markets and investor expectations, but from the vantage of the Treasury market, a relative calm prevails. This could change, of course, but...

Several risk factors that could end the bond market’s party, but for the moment US fixed-income markets are having a good year so far, based on prices through Thursday’s close (Jan. 30). Using a set...