Bonds Analysis & Opinion

The “fair value” for the US 10-year Treasury yield edged higher in March vs. the previous month and is now approaching the 4.0% mark – the highest estimate in 16 years. The analysis is based on the...

What is up with the bond market? Many rumors are floating around. For instance, some claim China is selling Treasury bonds in retaliation for increased tariffs. Another rumor claims the bond market...

When uncertainty rises, so too does the demand for safety, stability and income. That’s why in periods of market stress, like the one we’re in now, investors often turn to high-quality fixed income,...

It was an enjoyable day in stocks, but a more interesting day in rates, with the 10-year rate, based on my last check, soaring by 20 bps to 4.2%. The 10-year rate has been positively correlated with...

President Trump’s latest announcement on tariffs is a reminder that macro uncertainty is high and will probably remain so for the near term. “What we’re going to be doing is a 25% tariff on all cars...

Let me start with a prediction: Interest rates are going to fall this year—and by more than most people think. When that happens, bonds—including one discounted 8.7%-paying bond fund we’ll get into...

The Federal Reserve may continue to be patient before deciding on the next change in monetary policy, but the Treasury market isn’t waiting and has been rapidly adjusting to changing expectations for...

The year started out on a solid footing for the economy and the financial markets were pricing in expectations for sustained economic growth. But a lot has changed since the year’s optimistic...

Sticky inflation risk is still a threat for the bond market, but concern that the US economy is slowing has become the main factor driving Treasury yields lower recently. The US 10-year yield...

What bulls do not want to see, is when the long bonds (which have turned around) outperform both the S&P 500 and the Junk Bonds.  Risk-Off (things have already changed since the weekend)  All...

At a time of increased uncertainty about inflation, the relatively elevated real yields available in inflation-indexed Treasuries offer a partial antidote of certainty for anxious investors. Using...

Inflation concerns continue to lurk, but the US bond market is holding on to its rally so far this year, based on a set of ETFs through Wednesday’s close (Feb. 19). The investment-grade benchmark for...

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The market premium for the US 10-year Treasury yield rebounded sharply in January, rising to its highest level in nine months, based on a “fair value” estimate calculated by CapitalSpectator.com....