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Breaking News
Fed Rate Monitor Tool
Fed Interest Rate Decision Mar 19, 2025 02:00PM ET
0
Weeks
1
Days
7
Hours
15
Minutes
Our Fed rate monitor calculator is based on CME Group 30-Day Fed Fund futures prices, which tend to signal the markets’ expectations regarding the possibility of changes to US interest rates based on Fed monetary policy. The tool allows users to calculate the likelihood of an upcoming Fed rate hike or cut.
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Mar 19, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.670
4.25 - 4.50
100.0%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.00 - 4.25 | — | 2.0% | 4.0% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 100.0% | 98.0% | 96.0% |
Updated: Mar 18, 2025 06:15AM EDT
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Meeting Time:
May 07, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.715
4.00 - 4.25
16.6%
4.25 - 4.50
83.4%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.75 - 4.00 | — | 0.3% | 1.6% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 16.6% | 16.0% | 41.4% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 83.4% | 83.7% | 57.0% |
Updated: Mar 18, 2025 06:15AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Jun 18, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.780
3.75 - 4.00
10.5%
4.00 - 4.25
58.8%
4.25 - 4.50
30.7%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.50 - 3.75 | — | 0.2% | 1.4% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 10.5% | 10.2% | 35.9% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 58.8% | 58.8% | 54.8% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 30.7% | 30.8% | 7.9% |
Updated: Mar 18, 2025 06:15AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Jul 30, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.875
3.50 - 3.75
3.6%
3.75 - 4.00
27.0%
4.00 - 4.25
49.2%
4.25 - 4.50
20.2%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.25 - 3.50 | — | 0.1% | 0.7% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 3.6% | 3.6% | 18.4% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 27.0% | 26.8% | 45.2% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 49.2% | 49.2% | 31.7% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 20.2% | 20.3% | 4.0% |
Updated: Mar 18, 2025 06:15AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Sep 17, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.020
3.25 - 3.50
2.1%
3.50 - 3.75
17.0%
3.75 - 4.00
39.7%
4.00 - 4.25
32.6%
4.25 - 4.50
8.6%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.00 - 3.25 | — | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 2.1% | 2.1% | 12.4% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 17.0% | 16.9% | 36.2% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 39.7% | 39.6% | 36.3% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 32.6% | 32.7% | 13.3% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 8.6% | 8.7% | 1.3% |
Updated: Mar 18, 2025 06:15AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Oct 29, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.110
3.00 - 3.25
0.6%
3.25 - 3.50
6.4%
3.50 - 3.75
23.5%
3.75 - 4.00
37.7%
4.00 - 4.25
25.7%
4.25 - 4.50
6.2%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.75 - 3.00 | — | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 0.6% | 0.7% | 5.0% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 6.4% | 6.7% | 21.4% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 23.5% | 23.9% | 36.2% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 37.7% | 37.5% | 27.6% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 25.7% | 25.3% | 8.8% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 6.2% | 6.0% | 0.8% |
Updated: Mar 18, 2025 06:15AM EDT
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Meeting Time:
Dec 10, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.245
2.75 - 3.00
0.2%
3.00 - 3.25
2.8%
3.25 - 3.50
13.1%
3.50 - 3.75
29.1%
3.75 - 4.00
33.0%
4.00 - 4.25
18.1%
4.25 - 4.50
3.7%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.50 - 2.75 | — | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| 2.75 - 3.00 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 2.1% |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 2.8% | 3.2% | 11.7% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 13.1% | 13.8% | 27.5% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 29.1% | 29.5% | 32.7% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 33.0% | 32.4% | 19.9% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 18.1% | 17.3% | 5.5% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 3.7% | 3.5% | 0.5% |
Updated: Mar 18, 2025 06:15AM EDT
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Meeting Time:
Jan 26, 2026 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.285
2.75 - 3.00
0.6%
3.00 - 3.25
4.4%
3.25 - 3.50
15.5%
3.50 - 3.75
29.6%
3.75 - 4.00
30.8%
4.00 - 4.25
15.9%
4.25 - 4.50
3.2%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.25 - 2.50 | — | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.50 - 2.75 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| 2.75 - 3.00 | 0.6% | 0.6% | 3.6% |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 4.4% | 4.5% | 14.1% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 15.5% | 15.8% | 28.2% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 29.6% | 29.9% | 30.8% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 30.8% | 30.5% | 17.8% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 15.9% | 15.6% | 4.8% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 3.2% | 3.1% | 0.4% |
Updated: Mar 18, 2025 06:15AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Mar 18, 2026 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.330
2.50 - 2.75
0.2%
2.75 - 3.00
1.5%
3.00 - 3.25
7.0%
3.25 - 3.50
18.8%
3.50 - 3.75
29.9%
3.75 - 4.00
27.3%
4.00 - 4.25
12.9%
4.25 - 4.50
2.4%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.00 - 2.25 | — | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.25 - 2.50 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| 2.50 - 2.75 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.1% |
| 2.75 - 3.00 | 1.5% | 1.4% | 5.8% |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 7.0% | 6.7% | 17.1% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 18.8% | 18.5% | 28.8% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 29.9% | 30.0% | 28.0% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 27.3% | 27.6% | 15.0% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 12.9% | 13.1% | 3.9% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 2.4% | 2.5% | 0.3% |
Updated: Mar 18, 2025 06:15AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Apr 29, 2026 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.365
2.50 - 2.75
0.3%
2.75 - 3.00
1.9%
3.00 - 3.25
7.7%
3.25 - 3.50
19.5%
3.50 - 3.75
29.7%
3.75 - 4.00
26.3%
4.00 - 4.25
12.3%
4.25 - 4.50
2.3%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.75 - 2.00 | — | — | 0.0% |
| 2.00 - 2.25 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.25 - 2.50 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| 2.50 - 2.75 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.5% |
| 2.75 - 3.00 | 1.9% | 1.8% | 6.8% |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 7.7% | 7.7% | 18.1% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 19.5% | 19.5% | 28.7% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 29.7% | 29.8% | 26.9% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 26.3% | 26.4% | 14.0% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 12.3% | 12.2% | 3.6% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 2.3% | 2.3% | 0.3% |
Updated: Mar 18, 2025 06:15AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Jun 17, 2026 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.375
2.50 - 2.75
0.4%
2.75 - 3.00
2.3%
3.00 - 3.25
8.6%
3.25 - 3.50
20.3%
3.50 - 3.75
29.5%
3.75 - 4.00
25.3%
4.00 - 4.25
11.5%
4.25 - 4.50
2.1%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.50 - 1.75 | — | — | — |
| 1.75 - 2.00 | — | — | 0.0% |
| 2.00 - 2.25 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.25 - 2.50 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| 2.50 - 2.75 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.7% |
| 2.75 - 3.00 | 2.3% | 2.3% | 7.2% |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 8.6% | 8.6% | 18.5% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 20.3% | 20.3% | 28.7% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 29.5% | 29.5% | 26.4% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 25.3% | 25.3% | 13.7% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 11.5% | 11.5% | 3.4% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 2.1% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
Updated: Mar 18, 2025 06:15AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Jul 29, 2026 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.400
2.50 - 2.75
0.5%
2.75 - 3.00
2.6%
3.00 - 3.25
9.1%
3.25 - 3.50
20.7%
3.50 - 3.75
29.3%
3.75 - 4.00
24.7%
4.00 - 4.25
11.1%
4.25 - 4.50
2.0%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.50 - 1.75 | — | — | — |
| 1.75 - 2.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.00 - 2.25 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.25 - 2.50 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| 2.50 - 2.75 | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.9% |
| 2.75 - 3.00 | 2.6% | 2.6% | 7.7% |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 9.1% | 9.1% | 18.9% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 20.7% | 20.7% | 28.6% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 29.3% | 29.4% | 25.9% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 24.7% | 24.7% | 13.2% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 11.1% | 11.1% | 3.3% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 2.0% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
Updated: Mar 18, 2025 06:15AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Sep 16, 2026 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.410
2.50 - 2.75
0.5%
2.75 - 3.00
2.8%
3.00 - 3.25
9.5%
3.25 - 3.50
21.0%
3.50 - 3.75
29.1%
3.75 - 4.00
24.2%
4.00 - 4.25
10.8%
4.25 - 4.50
2.0%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.25 - 1.50 | — | — | — |
| 1.50 - 1.75 | — | — | — |
| 1.75 - 2.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.00 - 2.25 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.25 - 2.50 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| 2.50 - 2.75 | 0.5% | 0.5% | 2.1% |
| 2.75 - 3.00 | 2.8% | 2.8% | 8.0% |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 9.5% | 9.5% | 19.2% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 21.0% | 21.0% | 28.5% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 29.1% | 29.2% | 25.4% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 24.2% | 24.2% | 12.9% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 10.8% | 10.8% | 3.2% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 2.0% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
Updated: Mar 18, 2025 06:15AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Oct 28, 2026 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.415
2.50 - 2.75
0.5%
2.75 - 3.00
2.6%
3.00 - 3.25
8.9%
3.25 - 3.50
19.9%
3.50 - 3.75
28.4%
3.75 - 4.00
24.7%
4.00 - 4.25
12.0%
4.25 - 4.50
2.8%
4.50 - 4.75
0.2%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.25 - 1.50 | — | — | — |
| 1.50 - 1.75 | — | — | — |
| 1.75 - 2.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.00 - 2.25 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.25 - 2.50 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| 2.50 - 2.75 | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.9% |
| 2.75 - 3.00 | 2.6% | 2.6% | 7.5% |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 8.9% | 8.9% | 18.2% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 19.9% | 19.9% | 27.6% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 28.4% | 28.5% | 25.7% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 24.7% | 24.7% | 14.0% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 12.0% | 12.0% | 4.1% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 2.8% | 2.7% | 0.5% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Updated: Mar 18, 2025 06:15AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Dec 09, 2026 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.550
2.25 - 2.50
0.3%
2.50 - 2.75
1.7%
2.75 - 3.00
6.1%
3.00 - 3.25
15.1%
3.25 - 3.50
24.7%
3.50 - 3.75
26.3%
3.75 - 4.00
17.6%
4.00 - 4.25
6.8%
4.25 - 4.50
1.3%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.00 - 1.25 | — | — | — |
| 1.25 - 1.50 | — | — | — |
| 1.50 - 1.75 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1.75 - 2.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.00 - 2.25 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| 2.25 - 2.50 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.2% |
| 2.50 - 2.75 | 1.7% | 1.7% | 5.0% |
| 2.75 - 3.00 | 6.1% | 6.1% | 13.5% |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 15.1% | 15.1% | 23.5% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 24.7% | 24.7% | 26.6% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 26.3% | 26.4% | 19.2% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 17.6% | 17.6% | 8.5% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 6.8% | 6.8% | 2.1% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Updated: Mar 18, 2025 06:15AM EDT
Fed Fund Rates
News
Dollar weakens ahead of Fed meeting; euro gains ahead of German debt vote
By Investing.com - Mar 18, 2025
Investing.com - The U.S. dollar edged lower Tuesday ahead of the start of the latest Federal Reserve meeting, while the euro gained ahead of an expected vote on Germany’s massive stimulus proposal. At...
Asia FX ticks lower as dollar firms ahead of Fed, BOJ rate decisions
By Investing.com - Mar 18, 2025
Investing.com-- Most Asian currencies edged lower on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar firmed ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, while investors also awaited the Bank of Japan's policy...
Asia stocks rise with Hong Kong up on AI, stimulus cheer; Japan buoyed by Buffett
By Investing.com - Mar 17, 2025
8
Investing.com-- Most Asian stocks rose on Tuesday, with Hong Kong markets rallying on increasing optimism over more Chinese stimulus, while confidence in the country’s AI capabilities drove buying...
Analysis
USD/JPY Bulls Set Sights on 151 Breakout as Fed, BoJ Decisions Take Center Stage
By Damian Nowiszewski - Mar 18, 2025
Key central bank meetings lie ahead, with the BOJ expected to hold rates. Japan’s GDP missed forecasts, with both quarterly and annualized figures falling short. USD/JPY tests 151 yen, with 155 yen...
Gold: Bullish Run Continues Amid Tariff Fears and Recession Risks
By Octa - Mar 18, 2025
Gold Sets a New All-Time High The gold (XAU/USD) price rose by 0.57% on Monday. XAU/USD finished the day above the $3,000 milestone for the first time in history as investors continued to buy the...
Stocks Hold Gains, but the Path Forward May Get Considerably Harder
By Michael Kramer - Mar 18, 2025
1
Stocks finished higher on the day but gave back some gains by the close. The next couple of days are likely to be tricky, given the BOJ meeting today and the Fed meeting on Wednesday. Both are...