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Fed Rate Monitor Tool
Fed Interest Rate Decision Dec 18, 2024 02:00PM ET
3
Weeks
6
Days
12
Hours
36
Minutes
Our Fed rate monitor calculator is based on CME Group 30-Day Fed Fund futures prices, which tend to signal the markets’ expectations regarding the possibility of changes to US interest rates based on Fed monetary policy. The tool allows users to calculate the likelihood of an upcoming Fed rate hike or cut.
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Dec 18, 2024 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.475
4.25 - 4.50
57.3%
4.50 - 4.75
42.7%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 57.3% | 57.3% | 86.1% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 42.7% | 42.7% | 13.9% |
Updated: Nov 21, 2024 01:05AM EST
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Jan 29, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.560
4.00 - 4.25
15.2%
4.25 - 4.50
53.4%
4.50 - 4.75
31.3%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 15.2% | 15.2% | 24.8% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 53.4% | 53.4% | 65.3% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 31.3% | 31.3% | 9.9% |
Updated: Nov 21, 2024 01:05AM EST
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Mar 12, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.675
3.75 - 4.00
7.5%
4.00 - 4.25
34.0%
4.25 - 4.50
42.5%
4.50 - 4.75
15.9%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 7.5% | 7.5% | 12.1% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 34.0% | 34.0% | 44.5% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 42.5% | 42.5% | 38.3% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 15.9% | 15.9% | 5.1% |
Updated: Nov 21, 2024 01:05AM EST
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Apr 23, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.765
3.50 - 3.75
2.5%
3.75 - 4.00
16.2%
4.00 - 4.25
36.8%
4.25 - 4.50
33.8%
4.50 - 4.75
10.7%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.3% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 16.2% | 16.2% | 20.9% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 36.8% | 36.8% | 42.8% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 33.8% | 33.8% | 29.2% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 10.7% | 10.7% | 3.7% |
Updated: Nov 21, 2024 01:05AM EST
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Jun 04, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.885
3.25 - 3.50
0.7%
3.50 - 3.75
6.6%
3.75 - 4.00
22.5%
4.00 - 4.25
35.9%
4.25 - 4.50
26.8%
4.50 - 4.75
7.4%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.3% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 22.5% | 22.5% | 27.2% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 35.9% | 35.9% | 38.9% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 26.8% | 26.8% | 21.9% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 7.4% | 7.4% | 2.6% |
Updated: Nov 21, 2024 01:05AM EST
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Jul 16, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.960
3.00 - 3.25
0.3%
3.25 - 3.50
3.4%
3.50 - 3.75
13.9%
3.75 - 4.00
28.6%
4.00 - 4.25
31.8%
4.25 - 4.50
18.0%
4.50 - 4.75
4.1%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.0% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 13.9% | 13.9% | 16.1% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 28.6% | 28.6% | 32.1% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 31.8% | 31.8% | 31.9% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 18.0% | 18.0% | 13.9% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 4.1% | 4.1% | 1.5% |
Updated: Nov 21, 2024 01:05AM EST
Fed Fund Rates
News
Gold prices continue to fall as dollar firms; CPI, Fed cues in focus
By Investing.com - Nov 11, 2024
4
Investing.com -- Gold prices fell Monday, extending losses from last week as the dollar remained strong and risk appetite healthy in the wake of Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential...
Stock Market Today: Dow closes above 44,000 for first time as rally mode continues
By Investing.com - Nov 11, 2024
50
Investing.com-- The Dow climbed Monday, extending its recent rally to close above 44,000 for the first time as the stocks continue to surge ahead of upcoming inflation data and a slew of Federal...
Dollar set for small weekly gains after Fed rate cut
By Investing.com - Nov 08, 2024
Investing.com - The U.S. dollar steadied Friday, set to end a volatile week with small gains as traders digested the implications of a new Trump presidency as well as benign Federal Reserve. At 04:30...
Analysis
Is Fed Policy Still Too Tight?
By James Picerno - Nov 20, 2024
6
The next round of central bank decisions could rank among the most challenging in recent history, perhaps in decades. Policy hawks and doves can cite a fair amount of evidence for supporting their...
This Stock Could Pop 239% (Again!) on Jay Powell’s 'Revenge Tour'
By Brett Owens - Nov 20, 2024
Six summers ago, Donald Trump lamented privately to Republican donors that he expected Jay Powell to be a “cheap money” Fed chair. To the President’s chagrin, Powell had recently raised interest...
Dollar Index Retreats: Analyzing Potential Limits and Market Implications
By Alexander Kuptsikevich - Nov 19, 2024
1
The Dollar Index is retreating from Thursday's highs, moving against the logic of fundamental forces. This behaviour begs the question: either the Dollar Index has reached the limits of its range,...