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Fed Rate Monitor Tool
Fed Interest Rate Decision May 07, 2025 02:00PM ET
3
Weeks
3
Days
17
Hours
45
Minutes
Our Fed rate monitor calculator is based on CME Group 30-Day Fed Fund futures prices, which tend to signal the markets’ expectations regarding the possibility of changes to US interest rates based on Fed monetary policy. The tool allows users to calculate the likelihood of an upcoming Fed rate hike or cut.
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
May 07, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.725
4.00 - 4.25
16.3%
4.25 - 4.50
83.7%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 16.3% | 34.5% | 30.4% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 83.7% | 65.5% | 69.6% |
Updated: Apr 12, 2025 12:35AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Jun 18, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.800
3.75 - 4.00
11.9%
4.00 - 4.25
65.6%
4.25 - 4.50
22.5%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 11.9% | 28.3% | 27.8% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 65.6% | 60.0% | 66.2% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 22.5% | 11.8% | 6.0% |
Updated: Apr 12, 2025 12:35AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Jul 30, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.915
3.50 - 3.75
8.4%
3.75 - 4.00
49.8%
4.00 - 4.25
35.2%
4.25 - 4.50
6.6%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 8.4% | 24.2% | 26.7% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 49.8% | 55.4% | 64.8% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 35.2% | 18.8% | 8.3% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 6.6% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
Updated: Apr 12, 2025 12:35AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Sep 17, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.145
3.25 - 3.50
5.0%
3.50 - 3.75
33.1%
3.75 - 4.00
41.1%
4.00 - 4.25
18.1%
4.25 - 4.50
2.7%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 5.0% | 16.9% | 19.0% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 33.1% | 46.0% | 53.8% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 41.1% | 29.8% | 24.6% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 2.6% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
Updated: Apr 12, 2025 12:35AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Oct 29, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.240
3.00 - 3.25
2.2%
3.25 - 3.50
17.5%
3.50 - 3.75
36.6%
3.75 - 4.00
30.9%
4.00 - 4.25
11.3%
4.25 - 4.50
1.5%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 2.2% | 7.1% | 9.7% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 17.5% | 29.1% | 36.7% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 36.6% | 39.2% | 38.9% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 30.9% | 20.1% | 13.4% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 11.3% | 4.2% | 1.3% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
Updated: Apr 12, 2025 12:35AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Dec 10, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.420
2.75 - 3.00
1.0%
3.00 - 3.25
9.3%
3.25 - 3.50
26.3%
3.50 - 3.75
34.0%
3.75 - 4.00
21.8%
4.00 - 4.25
6.8%
4.25 - 4.50
0.8%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.75 - 3.00 | 1.0% | 3.7% | 5.2% |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 9.3% | 18.5% | 24.1% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 26.3% | 34.3% | 37.9% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 34.0% | 29.3% | 25.3% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 21.8% | 11.9% | 6.9% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 6.8% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Updated: Apr 12, 2025 12:35AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Jan 26, 2026 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.465
2.50 - 2.75
0.2%
2.75 - 3.00
2.7%
3.00 - 3.25
12.6%
3.25 - 3.50
27.8%
3.50 - 3.75
31.6%
3.75 - 4.00
18.9%
4.00 - 4.25
5.6%
4.25 - 4.50
0.6%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.50 - 2.75 | 0.2% | 0.8% | 1.8% |
| 2.75 - 3.00 | 2.7% | 7.0% | 11.7% |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 12.6% | 22.0% | 28.9% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 27.8% | 33.2% | 33.5% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 31.6% | 25.4% | 18.9% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 4.7% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 5.6% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Updated: Apr 12, 2025 12:35AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Mar 18, 2026 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.530
2.50 - 2.75
0.8%
2.75 - 3.00
5.2%
3.00 - 3.25
16.5%
3.25 - 3.50
28.8%
3.50 - 3.75
28.4%
3.75 - 4.00
15.5%
4.00 - 4.25
4.3%
4.25 - 4.50
0.5%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.25 - 2.50 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.6% |
| 2.50 - 2.75 | 0.8% | 2.1% | 5.2% |
| 2.75 - 3.00 | 5.2% | 10.1% | 17.7% |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 16.5% | 24.4% | 30.5% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 28.8% | 31.6% | 28.5% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 28.4% | 22.1% | 14.0% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 15.5% | 8.0% | 3.2% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 4.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Updated: Apr 12, 2025 12:35AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Apr 29, 2026 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.570
2.25 - 2.50
0.2%
2.50 - 2.75
1.4%
2.75 - 3.00
6.6%
3.00 - 3.25
18.0%
3.25 - 3.50
28.7%
3.50 - 3.75
26.7%
3.75 - 4.00
14.1%
4.00 - 4.25
3.8%
4.25 - 4.50
0.4%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.00 - 2.25 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| 2.25 - 2.50 | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.6% |
| 2.50 - 2.75 | 1.4% | 3.5% | 7.9% |
| 2.75 - 3.00 | 6.6% | 12.6% | 20.4% |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 18.0% | 25.6% | 30.0% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 28.7% | 30.0% | 25.4% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 26.7% | 19.7% | 11.7% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 14.1% | 6.9% | 2.6% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Updated: Apr 12, 2025 12:35AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Jun 17, 2026 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.595
2.25 - 2.50
0.3%
2.50 - 2.75
2.0%
2.75 - 3.00
7.9%
3.00 - 3.25
19.3%
3.25 - 3.50
28.5%
3.50 - 3.75
25.3%
3.75 - 4.00
12.9%
4.00 - 4.25
3.5%
4.25 - 4.50
0.4%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.75 - 2.00 | 0.0% | — | 0.0% |
| 2.00 - 2.25 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| 2.25 - 2.50 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 2.8% |
| 2.50 - 2.75 | 2.0% | 3.2% | 10.3% |
| 2.75 - 3.00 | 7.9% | 11.8% | 22.3% |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 19.3% | 24.5% | 29.1% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 28.5% | 29.6% | 22.7% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 25.3% | 20.6% | 10.0% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 12.9% | 8.0% | 2.1% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | — | 0.0% | — |
Updated: Apr 12, 2025 12:35AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Jul 29, 2026 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.630
2.25 - 2.50
0.4%
2.50 - 2.75
2.4%
2.75 - 3.00
8.7%
3.00 - 3.25
19.9%
3.25 - 3.50
28.3%
3.50 - 3.75
24.5%
3.75 - 4.00
12.3%
4.00 - 4.25
3.2%
4.25 - 4.50
0.3%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.50 - 1.75 | — | — | 0.0% |
| 1.75 - 2.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| 2.00 - 2.25 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.6% |
| 2.25 - 2.50 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 3.3% |
| 2.50 - 2.75 | 2.4% | 3.8% | 11.1% |
| 2.75 - 3.00 | 8.7% | 12.6% | 22.7% |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 19.9% | 24.8% | 28.7% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 28.3% | 29.0% | 21.9% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 24.5% | 19.8% | 9.4% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 12.3% | 7.6% | 2.0% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | — | 0.0% | — |
Updated: Apr 12, 2025 12:35AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Sep 16, 2026 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.645
2.25 - 2.50
0.5%
2.50 - 2.75
2.6%
2.75 - 3.00
9.0%
3.00 - 3.25
20.1%
3.25 - 3.50
28.2%
3.50 - 3.75
24.1%
3.75 - 4.00
12.0%
4.00 - 4.25
3.2%
4.25 - 4.50
0.3%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.25 - 1.50 | — | — | — |
| 1.50 - 1.75 | 0.0% | — | 0.0% |
| 1.75 - 2.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| 2.00 - 2.25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.7% |
| 2.25 - 2.50 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 3.6% |
| 2.50 - 2.75 | 2.6% | 4.1% | 11.5% |
| 2.75 - 3.00 | 9.0% | 13.0% | 22.9% |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 20.1% | 24.9% | 28.5% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 28.2% | 28.7% | 21.5% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 24.1% | 19.4% | 9.2% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 12.0% | 7.4% | 2.0% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | — | 0.0% | — |
Updated: Apr 12, 2025 12:35AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Oct 28, 2026 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.650
2.25 - 2.50
0.4%
2.50 - 2.75
2.4%
2.75 - 3.00
8.4%
3.00 - 3.25
19.1%
3.25 - 3.50
27.4%
3.50 - 3.75
24.5%
3.75 - 4.00
13.1%
4.00 - 4.25
4.0%
4.25 - 4.50
0.6%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.25 - 1.50 | — | — | — |
| 1.50 - 1.75 | 0.0% | — | 0.0% |
| 1.75 - 2.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| 2.00 - 2.25 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.6% |
| 2.25 - 2.50 | 0.4% | 0.7% | 3.3% |
| 2.50 - 2.75 | 2.4% | 3.8% | 10.7% |
| 2.75 - 3.00 | 8.4% | 12.2% | 21.9% |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 19.1% | 23.8% | 28.0% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 27.4% | 28.4% | 22.1% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 24.5% | 20.2% | 10.3% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 13.1% | 8.5% | 2.6% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | — | 0.0% | — |
Updated: Apr 12, 2025 12:35AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Dec 09, 2026 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.770
2.00 - 2.25
0.2%
2.25 - 2.50
1.4%
2.50 - 2.75
5.4%
2.75 - 3.00
13.8%
3.00 - 3.25
23.3%
3.25 - 3.50
25.9%
3.50 - 3.75
18.8%
3.75 - 4.00
8.5%
4.00 - 4.25
2.3%
4.25 - 4.50
0.3%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.00 - 1.25 | — | — | — |
| 1.25 - 1.50 | — | — | 0.0% |
| 1.50 - 1.75 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1.75 - 2.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| 2.00 - 2.25 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 2.1% |
| 2.25 - 2.50 | 1.4% | 2.2% | 7.5% |
| 2.50 - 2.75 | 5.4% | 8.0% | 17.0% |
| 2.75 - 3.00 | 13.8% | 18.0% | 25.3% |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 23.3% | 26.1% | 24.7% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 25.9% | 24.3% | 15.5% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 18.8% | 14.4% | 6.0% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 8.5% | 5.3% | 1.3% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | — | 0.0% | — |
Updated: Apr 12, 2025 12:35AM EDT
Fed Fund Rates
News
Dollar falls on recession fears; euro, yen in demand
By Investing.com - Apr 07, 2025
1
Investing.com - The U.S. dollar fell Monday amid heightened fears of a U.S. recession and global economic disruptions from the Trump administration’s trade tariffs. At 05:30 ET (09:30 GMT), the Dollar...
U.S. economy added 228,000 jobs in March; unemployment rate rises to 4.2%
By Investing.com - Apr 04, 2025
41
Investing.com - The U.S. economy added more jobs than anticipated in March, but the previous month's figure was revised sharply lower and the unemployment rate rose, adding to the economic uncertainty...
Oil prices extend steep declines after China announces tariffs on U.S. goods
By Investing.com - Apr 04, 2025
1
Investing.com-- Oil prices fell sharply Friday, continuing the previous session's selloff as China responded to U.S. President Donald Trump’s barrage of levies this week, lifting worries about a...
Analysis
EUR/USD Hits 3-Year High as US Dollar Suffers Heavy Losses
By Andrey Goilov - Apr 11, 2025
The EUR/USD pair is in strong demand, surging to a three-year peak near 1.1330. Key factors driving EUR/USD Movements The market remains highly sensitive to growing investor concerns over the US...
A Pleasant Surprise From US Inflation Report, but It Won’t Last Long
By James Knightley - Apr 10, 2025
3
US inflation surprisingly undershot pretty much everyone's expectations in March, but higher prices from tariffs and supply chain disruptions are on their way. After all the volatility and...
Don’t Be Fooled by Soft Core CPI—Tariff Impact Tells a Different Tale
By Michael Ashton - Apr 10, 2025
1
Before we get started on today’s CPI, let me add a few wise words from an old market observer: The stock market is not the economy. The stock market is the (private real economy) times (price per...