Econintersect LLC

When one analyzes the economy, there are always some sections which do better than others. When the economic growth is weak (like currently), several segments can be in contraction while others are...

I am in the middle of the Atlantic on a cruise ship headed to Europe. Having spent 15 years of my life on the high seas and attending ship owner's conferences, I always take a critical look at cruise...

The lubricant for economic growth in consumer economies has been credit. My position is that credit cannot grow forever at a rate faster than economic growth as it will constrain the future GDP growth...

A week ago, I wrote an analysis March 2015 New Home Sales Are Having a Rough Ride. Four Month Decline in New Home Prices. Although it may seem that I am negative on the future for new residential...

I am appalled what passes for economic "fact" or "proven" economic theory. Scientific methods require: changing only one factor (variable) and keep all other conditions the same (carefully controlled...

According to Merriam-Webster, something "transient" lasts only a short time. The Federal Reserve's statements since January 2012 have implied that the dynamics causing the low inflation / deflation...

A year ago, I penned a post ADP Does A Better Job Of Estimating Employment In Real Time than BLS. This year the results look different. Follow up: In my simple mind: Employment reports are truly...

Early this week two posts hit my inbox within hours of each other - and I was thinking that the authors of these posts could not be living in the same world. One, (Professor Paul Krugman), was...

Here we are in THE Great Bull Market (although it is becoming a rough ride recently) which has for months been oblivious to an obvious slowing of the USA economy. The purported forward looking markets...

Professor Paul Krugman recently told the Federal Reserve: "Don't raise rates until you see the whites of inflation's eyes!"Oliver Hardy stated in 1930: "Well, here's another nice mess you've gotten me...

Much of what I write about is food for thought. I take opposing positions on subjects when I agree generally on what was said - as want readers to understand there are exceptions or buts or legitimate...

As many will remember, many pundits (aka economists) predicted an upsurge in consumer spending resulting from lower fuel prices. Here is a quote from Federal Reserve Chair Yellen in her 17 December...

Is personal debt restraining economic expansion? Many pundits talk about the debt unwinding cycle not being complete from the Great Recession. Is there some magic formula for deciding if debt levels...

Last week my post concluded with commentary on small business growth - which I consider a major element of economic growth and middle class strength.Follow up: Living in developing countries most of...

This past week, Sentier Research told us that real median wages were 1.4% higher in December than in November 2014. This increase should be considered significant.Follow up: A brief summary of the...

Social safety nets are government or non-government (NGO) social programs to assist those in society who cannot work (or cannot work to full capacity). Many worry that such programs are incentives for...