Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Bond prices are falling. They have been falling since the middle of 2016. Their prices are now off almost 20%. Bond Kings Bill Gross and Jeff Gundlach are calling the end of the 30 year bull market...

I have commented in recent Factor updates on the completed 6+ year, double-top on the monthly chart. In last week’s note, I scolded myself for not placing orders to short a retest of this top. I...

The chart above looks at the yield on the 10-year note (TNX) “Inverted.” The 10-year yield has remained inside of rising channel (1) for the past 25 years and rising channel (2) for the...

In this article titled “A Useful Inflation Indicator (and a Decent Bond Market Model)” – dated 12/14/2017 – I wrote about a simple model that, as the name implies, has a decent...

A couple of days ago we witnessed a sell-off in the stock market that drove yields down. Long-term US treasury holders had 5-15% gain, however now it seems like sell-off moved from stock to bond...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators sharply added to their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment...

Mediocre demand for Wednesday’s auction of $24 billion in 10-year Treasury notes probably reflects worries over rising deficit spending.In that auction, yields obviously were not attractive...

US 10-Year Treasury Yields have now tagged the apex of two rising intersecting trendlines (the high of February's candle) and is currently trading a bit below, as shown on the following monthly...

I’ve recently been seeing a certain defense of equities that I think is interesting. It runs something like this: The recent rise in interest rates, which helped cause the stock market swoon, is...

The bond markets have experienced a hiccup in the first part of this year, with the 10-year bond rising 45 basis points in yield, to 2.85% from 2.40%, and the 30-year bond rising 37 basis points in...

On Friday, the market finally woke up to the reality of rising rates. The truth is that Central Banks have been printing money for too long, maintaining “emergency” levels of QE despite...

Fierce forces at work on interest rates…or are we just seeing a mild adjustment? There is no way to know. We are referring to US Treasury interest rates on bills, notes and bonds. Some bullets...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond market speculators continued to remain very bearish in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of...

It’s hard to believe that 10-year yields in the US have doubled in the last 18 months. It’s the last 50bps, taking us from 2.35% to 2.84% since December, that has received the most...