Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Let’s talk about junk bonds, which represent corporate debt issued by companies that have a significant chance of defaulting (meaning they don’t pay you back).Why would anyone want to lend...

In my conversations with clients, a common topic of interest is that of US high yield credit spreads. Indeed, it's almost the opposite issue of the stockmarket—if you think S&P 500 PE ratios...

Every attempt of the 30-Year long bond to break out of a decades-long downtrend fails. At the end of October, the long bond yield was 2.96%. Six days into November, it's back at 2.80%. Meanwhile,...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large speculators sharply cut back on their net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders...

Resistance levels for yields are ahead Original post

Back in June, China’s federal bond yield curve inverted. Ahead of mid-year bank checks, short-term govvies sold off as longer bonds continued to be bought. It was for some a rotation, for others...

Seems like its easy to say that inflation is back and interest rates have to rise. Below looks at the Inflation Indicator (TIP/TLT) and how it is experiencing a key test of resistance at this...

Who will be the next leader of the Federal Reserve? This past week we had conflicting news stories about the potential front-runner. But it seems we are now at the finalist stage, with Yellen and...

The 30-year bond yield will soon challenge its long-term downtrend Original post

If Tuesday's break above resistance is real you’ll need to have your thinking caps on in the coming weeks. It’s about to get really noisy out there. If the move is real, perceptions are...

US U.S. 10-Year Yield trying to prove yesterday’s breakout was fake Original post

Maybe there is hope for the media yet. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield has passed above 2.40% for the first time in several months. In the past any similar move or technical breakout of...

Interest rates based on the 10-year yield have been heading lower for years, more than 25 years actually. Below looks at the yield on the 10-year note and reflects that an important and rare test is...

The Treasury market continues to price in firmer odds of another rate hike by the end of the year. Notably, the policy sensitive 2-year yield edged up to 1.60% yesterday (October 24) for the first...