Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Long-term bond yields are rising with the 2-year rising more than the 30-year Treasury bill. So not only is this a boost for rising nominal yields, it is also a boost for the flattening yield curve....

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large treasury speculators raised their bullish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets again this week, according to the latest Commitment...

The steady increase in the US two-year yield as the market unwinds rate-hike expectations in Australia have pushed the US rate above Australia's two-year yield for the first time since late 2000. In...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large speculators raised their net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets last week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data...

The US two-year yield has risen nearly 57 bp so far this year. The Federal Reserve has hiked rates twice and is poised to raise the Fed funds target rate in a few weeks. The 10-year yield has fallen...

Futures positions imply a 92% chance the Fed will hike in Dec and 50% again in March. How will the yield curve respond?Let's start with a discussion of how the short-end of the yield curve will...

The Treasury yield curve continues to flatten, which is widely viewed as a warning sign for the economy. The 10-year/2-year spread fell to 59 basis points on Tuesday (Nov. 21), the lowest in a decade....

Are U.S. Treasury yields up or down from a year ago? The answer is yes: Both.Reader David asks: "Are we in a recession? According to the yield curve we might already be. I'm in Cleveland so it is hard...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large treasury speculators further raised their bullish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest...

Summary: Macro economic data is good. It seems likely that rates will be higher in a year and that suggests Treasury yields will also be higher than they are now. But the path between here and higher...

The debate about the value of the Treasury spread for business-cycle analysis is set to intensify in the wake of the latest slide in the difference between the 10-year and 2-year rates. Although the...

The T. Rowe Price Group expects the yield curve to completely flatten in 2018. This is not a surprise as I have been commenting the same way for quite some time. The more important question is how? By...

The topic of the yield curve is one that has been coming up a lot lately, particularly as the 10s minus 2s spread has dipped to the lowest point since just prior to the financial crisis. A few people...

Yields still above support line (bearish for Treasuries) Original post