Bonds Analysis & Opinion

It’s ‘all a bit upside down’ on market reactions to inflation outlook from CNBC.Right now, it’s all about bond yields. The U.S. market has been extremely expensive by...

Bund can be trading in final stages of a bigger impulsive drop, which can be part of black wave C. Specifically we see price unfolding corrective leg 4, that is now trading at possible resistance...

US 10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large treasury speculators reduced their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note Futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of...

JP Morgan’s quantitative and derivatives strategy team warns of potential short squeeze in US treasuries. Marko Kolanovic, on JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM)'s quantitative team offers a word of warning to...

I last wrote about the 10-YR T-Note, 10YR Rate, and the US Dollar (DX) here.The following monthly comparison chart shows the price action of all three. The US Dollar, generally, trends in the same...

One of Mark Twain’s famous quotes is “The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated.” It’s very easy to find people saying the death of the 25-year bond market has...

Let's have a look at a long-term perspective on Treasury yields as of Friday's close. The chart below shows the 10-Year Constant Maturity yield since 1962 along with the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) and...

Most investors are fairly familiar with the concept of seasonality in the stock market, with aphorisms such as "sell in May" baked into the market consciousness. But what about the bond market?...

US 10 Year T-Note Futures Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators cut back on their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest...

Is the bond bull market of the past 30-years over? Are we seeing just the start of a trend higher in interest rates or are they about to blast off? This isn’t the million dollar question, its...

Some times Junk bonds can give quality hints to the next short & long-term move in stocks. Junk bonds look to be sending both of those signals again. The next two charts share long and short-term...

The current “debt ceiling” has been suspended until March 2019. The current amount of Treasury debt outstanding is $20.681 trillion, and it has been estimated it will be as high as $22...

The inherent fear of rising rates is something that income investors have dealt with through every major market cycle. Many have stubbornly adhered to the notion that the Fed’s monetary...

The US reports January CPI figures later today. The market seems especially sensitive to it. The main narrative is that it is an inflation scare spurred by the jump in January average hourly earnings...