Bonds Analysis & Opinion

One of Mark Twain’s famous quotes is “The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated.” It’s very easy to find people saying the death of the 25-year bond market has...

The two most important factors in determining the level of sovereign bond yields are the credit and the inflation risk extant within a nation. When determining a country’s ability to service its...

Let's have a look at a long-term perspective on Treasury yields as of Friday's close. The chart below shows the 10-Year Constant Maturity yield since 1962 along with the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) and...

Most investors are fairly familiar with the concept of seasonality in the stock market, with aphorisms such as "sell in May" baked into the market consciousness. But what about the bond market?...

After a big rally in recent months, 10-year Treasury yields are giving out signs of fatigue – at least near term.Interest rates have suddenly become the talk of the town. Ten-year yields rallied...

US 10 Year T-Note Futures Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators cut back on their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest...

Some times Junk bonds can give quality hints to the next short & long-term move in stocks. Junk bonds look to be sending both of those signals again. The next two charts share long and short-term...

The current “debt ceiling” has been suspended until March 2019. The current amount of Treasury debt outstanding is $20.681 trillion, and it has been estimated it will be as high as $22...

The US reports January CPI figures later today. The market seems especially sensitive to it. The main narrative is that it is an inflation scare spurred by the jump in January average hourly earnings...

Bond prices are falling. They have been falling since the middle of 2016. Their prices are now off almost 20%. Bond Kings Bill Gross and Jeff Gundlach are calling the end of the 30 year bull market...

I have commented in recent Factor updates on the completed 6+ year, double-top on the monthly chart. In last week’s note, I scolded myself for not placing orders to short a retest of this top. I...

The chart above looks at the yield on the 10-year note (TNX) “Inverted.” The 10-year yield has remained inside of rising channel (1) for the past 25 years and rising channel (2) for the...

In this article titled “A Useful Inflation Indicator (and a Decent Bond Market Model)” – dated 12/14/2017 – I wrote about a simple model that, as the name implies, has a decent...

A couple of days ago we witnessed a sell-off in the stock market that drove yields down. Long-term US treasury holders had 5-15% gain, however now it seems like sell-off moved from stock to bond...