Bonds Analysis & Opinion

There has been a lot going on this year, and while the stock market has grabbed most of the headlines, something has been going on in a corner of the market that should not be ignored. US high yield...

Note: We've updated this commentary with data through Tuesday's market close.Let's take a closer look at recent activity in US Treasuries. The yield on the 10-year note ended Tuesday at 2.79% and the...

The Prices Paid Index just rose for its fourth straight month to 78.1: its highest level since April 2011.Why does this matter? Because it’s a MAJOR warning that inflation is coming. You see,...

The Fed is lying about inflation.How do I know? Because several of the Fed’s OWN in-house inflation measures are roaring. The New York Fed’s UIG inflation measure is currently clocking in...

The Fed is lying about inflation.How do I know? Because several of the Fed’s OWN in-house inflation measures are roaring. The New York Fed’s UIG inflation measure is currently clocking in...

US 10 Year T-Note Futures Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators cut back on their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest...

Two Federal Reserve officials have recently dismissed it. But a research note published this month by the San Francisco Fed paper advises that the yield curve is still a relevant economic signal for...

Yes, I’m writing another post about bonds. I think it’s an important topic because just about everyone is expecting bond yields to go to the moon as they call for the end of the 30+ year...

Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester on Monday said that the recent flattening of the yield curve isn’t a sign that the US economy is weakening. Her comment follows a similar...

Stock markets around the world tumbled last week over concerns about a possible trade war between the US and China. The risk-off posture generated renewed demand for bonds, particularly foreign bonds,...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large treasury speculators increased their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week following a cut in bearish bets last...

In my role as a long-term investor (trading is a different story) I don’t care about Chinese purchases of US Treasuries. You shouldn’t either.The issue is the focal point of the trade war...

Above looks at 2- and 5-year yields over the past 30 years. The rally of the past couple of years has both of them testing 25-year falling resistance line (A) at each (1). While testing this long-term...

The ratio of Crude Oil to Treasury Bond prices has been trending higher since the middle of 2017. It took a pause in January though and has been consolidating ever since. But with the latest move...