Bonds Analysis & Opinion

The benchmark 10-year rate yesterday (Jan. 30) jumped to 2.70% for the first time since 2014, based on daily data via Treasury.gov. One of the catalysts is firmer expectations for higher inflation. A...

US Treasuries have been an enigma the past 3 years. Just as the Fed states an end to Quantitative Easing, instead of losing value they start to rise. A rate hike in December 2015 also saw an...

Rates continue to rise, though stocks remain oblivious. The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury continues to soar, with a confirmed breakout from its 10-year downtrend. Now, cynics would ask,...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators increased their bearish net positions in the 10 year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of...

The High-Yield Corporate Bonds ETF (NYSE:HYG) is in jeopardy at major resistance.The monthly chart below shows that price is facing double resistance at the confluence of a 60% Fibonacci retracement...

With the latest round of flash manufacturing PMI data and a couple of key levels already being breached (across markets), it's a good opportunity to review the outlook for bond yields. Forecasting...

This week’s chart of the week features the ETF, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (NASDAQ:TLT), which has been under pressure as treasury yields have been on a run. Fundamentally, strong upward...

There’s nothing especially special about 2.62%. It’s a level pretty much like any other, given significance by only one phrase: the highest since 2014. It sounds impressive, which is the...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators sharply reduced their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment...

When a long-held market correlation begins to break, we wait to see if the divergence is temporary before making predictions whether the disparity will continue or not. Either way, we must attempt to...

We've been long TBT – the inverse, double-levered, longer-term T-bond ETF – expecting a downturn in t-bond prices in conjunction with a generational opportunity to capture the upturn in...

Maybe it’s due to a global savings glut. Or perhaps fear continues to lurk in the hearts of overseas investors, inspiring a constant flow into safe-haven Treasuries in spite of firmer economic...

Of my five long-term option put positions – expiration: January 2019 – by far my favorite is bonds, symbol TLT. The pattern is about 70% complete at this point, but if it finishes,...

What if? What if China proceeds to reduce its purchases of Treasury securities? At $1.18 trillion, it is the largest holder. Japan – at $1.08 trillion – is close second. The U.S. Treasury...