Bonds Analysis & Opinion

High Debt Doesn’t Equal Higher RatesDr. Lacy Hunt breaks one natural assumption made by investors. You would think that rising government debt levels would lead to higher bond interest rates....

After a months-long period of treading water, corporate fixed income in foreign markets caught fire last week, posting the strongest gain for the major asset classes, based on a set of exchange-traded...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators continued to decrease their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the...

The long-running bull market in bonds continues to defy bearish forecasts, as shown by a set of exchange-traded funds. Positive year-to-date performance in all the major corners of fixed income...

True Money Supply Growth Rebounds in SeptemberIn August 2019 year-on-year growth of the broad true US money supply (TMS-2) fell to a fresh 12-year low of 1.87%. The 12-month moving average of the...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators once again cut back on their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to...

One year ago, last October, the IMF published the update to its World Economic Outlook (WEO) for 2018. Like many, the organization began to talk more about trade wars and protectionism. It had become...

I’ve said all along that they would be dragged into them kicking and screaming. After all, the Federal Reserve undertook its last rate hike in December 2018 – just as the markets were...

SummaryThe long-leading data is still positive, although there's been an uptick in CCC yields.Leading data is mostly positive, although there is weakness in manufacturing sentiment and the yield...

The 30-year long bond yield just fell back below 2.00% for the first time since September 4. The 30-year long bond yield rose above 2.00% on September 5 and stayed above that rate for over...

Maybe it was a sign of things to come, a warning how it wasn’t going to go as planned. Then again, when it comes to something like quantitative easing there really is no plan. Other than to make...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators cut back on their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest...

By now, everyone and their brother has heard about the yield curve inversion. How come it has inverted and how much should we read into it? Is it really such a reliable indicator of an upcoming...

For the second time this week, the ISM managed to burst the bond bear bubble about there being a bond bubble. Who in their right mind would buy especially UST’s at such low yields when the...