Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Chaos in Overnight Funding MarketsMost of our readers are probably aware that there were recently quite large spikes in repo rates. The events were inter alia chronicled at Zerohedge here...

5-Year Bond Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators reduced their bearish net positions in the 5-Year Bond futures markets last week, according to the latest...

“[Whatever] the repo failure involved, it is likely to prove a watershed moment, causing US bankers to more widely consider their exposure to counterparty risk and risky loans, particularly...

With China closed for its National Day Golden Week holiday, the stage was set for Japan to steal the market spotlight. If only briefly. The Bank of Japan announced last night that it had had enough of...

Current market conditions and misplaced investor pessimism make this topic worth revisiting. Continued revisits will likely prove valuable as global events play out. The value of hindsight is that it...

One of the most maddening aspects of the recent repo market, federal funds mashup is the lack of context behind it. The event is being characterized and described as if in isolation. Regulations are...

“Central Banks are panicking…the whole system is on the verge of disappearing into a black hole.” – Egon Von Greyerz on USAWatchdog.comOn Wednesday, after Wednesday’s...

In a series of recent articles (here, here and here) I wrote about seasonality in the bond market. In this piece we will look at a “practical application”. The Caveats*Everything that I...

The pundits and the media were debating for several weeks leading up to the last Fed meeting about what the Fed was going to do and the effect they thought it would have on the market. And, it amazes...

Bund December Contract Daily Forecast - September 23, 2019 Bund closed near the high of the day but could not reach strong resistance at 173.95/99. A break above 174.05 is a buy signal...

So much has been discussed about the power of the yield curve and how it affects the economy. It stands to reason when an inversion occurs the economy is likely to slip into a recession - eventually....

The amount of global debt with negative yields soared to $16 trillion, or more than 25 percent of the market. This number has nearly tripled since October 2018. In July, even the 30-year German...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators decreased their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest...

According to the recent release of the Federal Reserve’s projected forecasts, that’s it. It wasn’t one and done like Chairman Powell had initially indicated, this “midcycle...