Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Well, this month appears to have presented the triggering event that will tip the Fed's hawkish bias over the tipping point. It seems likely now that the Fed will chase the natural rate down to zero...

I last wrote about U.S. 10-year Treasury yields in a post back in August 2019, which warned of potential upcoming weakness in the equity market. Back then it was trading at 1.556. Since then, it rose...

U.S. CDC SAYS NOW IS THE TIME FOR BUSINESSES, HOPSTIALS, COMMUNITIES AND SCHOOLS TO BEGIN PREPARING TO RESPOND TO CORONAVIRUS – TELEBRIEFING U.S. CDC SAYS WANTS TO PREPARE AMERICAN PUBLIC FOR...

10-yearear U.S. notes are trading in an uptrend since the last quarter of 2018, and unfolding a big, five-wave cycle. We labelled a turn lower from the 132'14 level as a corrective wave (4) which...

The fear trade that’s animating Treasury buying is alive and well. Although you might have missed it by focusing on the soaring US equity market, the rush into safe-haven Treasuries has hardly...

There is an old story about a little boy who was such an extreme optimist that his worried parents took him to a psychiatrist. The doctor decided to try to temper the young boy’s optimism by...

It happened before, in 2012-2013, but the US economy muddled through a soft patch. Is it different this time? It’s a question worth pondering as the global economy struggles to model the...

Interest rates have declined back toward the August lows (though they have bounced back up a bit over the past couple of days). Generally, this month has continued the trend that suggests the Fed will...

The Fed cracked open the door to cutting rates later this year by emphasizing that the central bank is determined to avoid the kind of low inflation that's plaguing several developed countries. The...

Huge portions of the yield curve are inverted. Most of the inversions are by tiny amounts, but it's another warning. With growing concern over the Coronavirus, yields dropped again today...

There are two things I turned bullish on when the year began: gold and bonds. Both of these are based on long-term patterns. Short-term, of course, I watch them quite closely anyway. Bonds, by way of...

Over the past four months the Fed has added about $400B to its balance sheet. To put this into perspective, since early September the Fed has expanded its balance sheet at an annualised rate of around...

The benchmark rate on the 10-year Treasury has been trending higher since October, suggesting that the sharp slide that unfolded earlier in 2019 has run its course. But the economic outlook is still...

Consider junk bonds, er, “high yield securities” (back in the Classic Rock era we just went ahead and called them what they were. Today the marketing folks are in charge, hence we now...