Bonds Analysis & Opinion

The big story recently was about the yield curve, which inverted on the 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread spread recently for the first time since 2007. That was right before the Great Recession hit,...

The stock market tanked on Wednesday, August 14 because the yield spread between the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond and the 2-year Treasury note turned negative. Such an inversion of the yield curve is...

Once again, U.S 10-year Treasury yields are approaching 60-year historical lows set in mid-2012 and mid-2016, as shown on the following monthly chart. Shown on the next shorter-term...

Amazing isn’t it? It was only back in H2 2018 when everybody but you (because you are as smart as I think you are or because you read NFTRH or nftrh.com) and me was unbelievably bearish about...

Is the SEK market wrong pricing a rate cut? Long end remains too steep - flatten 10Y-20Y versus steepening 2Y-5Y. Update on existing recommendations - take profit on SEK 2Y versus EUR widener. SEK:...

An inversion of the 2-year and 10-year bond yield curves in the previous session sent panic across the markets. The Dow closed down 800 points, below its 200-day moving average as investors sold out...

One of the crowd’s favorite yield curve pairings (the spread on 10-year less 3-month Treasuries) has been signaling elevated US recession risk since May. As of yesterday (Aug. 14), the...

An inversion of the 2-Year and 10-year bond yield curves in the previous session sent panic across the markets. The DOW closed down 800 points, below its 200-day moving average as investors sold out...

As recession warnings flashed from the bond market, Wall Street plummeted lower overnight. The Dow closed down 800 points whilst the Nasdaq and the S&P tumbled 3% and 2.9% respectively. Asian...

Trump gives it, market takes it away. Less than 24 hours after markets rallied 1.5% on Trump's announcement to delayed US tariffs on a portion of the items due to be hit on Sept 1st, markets tumbled...

Stocks had another lousy day with the S&P 500, falling by almost 3%. If it makes you feel any better, the index is still higher than where it was on August 7. I can’t say all that much has...

I think Asia traders are a bit shell-shocked by the extent of the carnage overnight and not sure what to do with themselves today. However, trade volumes speak louder than words and those volumes are...

Bonds have had a dream run since bottoming late last year, particularly the longer end of the curve (I checked one popular longer-term U.S. treasury ETF and it was up almost 30% off the low point!)....

The focus today has been on the latest development in fixed income with the 2-year Treasury Yield rising above the 10-year Treasury Yield. This is an input in many economists' recession models and...