Bonds Analysis & Opinion

So much has been discussed about the power of the yield curve and how it affects the economy. It stands to reason when an inversion occurs the economy is likely to slip into a recession - eventually....

The amount of global debt with negative yields soared to $16 trillion, or more than 25 percent of the market. This number has nearly tripled since October 2018. In July, even the 30-year German...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators decreased their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest...

According to the recent release of the Federal Reserve’s projected forecasts, that’s it. It wasn’t one and done like Chairman Powell had initially indicated, this “midcycle...

Bund strong resistance at 173.25/30. A break above 173.45 targets 173.61/65, perhaps as far as strong resistance at 173.95/99. Holding below strong resistance at 173.25/30 targets...

Still no pre-commitment to more easingAs expected, the Federal Reserve cut its target range by 25bp to 1.75-2.00%. Not very surprisingly we had three dissenters with Rosengren and Esther calling for...

The Federal Reserve delivered the widely anticipated 25 bp rate cut, but by not validating expectations for another cut. The market reacted is if they wanted to clearer dovish signal. The dollar...

No, the title is not related to today's Fed decision. It is something related to corporate liquidity. Strains in the short-term funding market added an unexpected twist ahead of Wednesday's FOMC...

In Part I here, I highlighted a 4-bond index portfolio (convertible bonds, high yield corporate bonds, long-term treasury and intermediate-term treasury) that:*Gained almost as well as long-term...

Bund December Contract Daily Forecast - September 16, 2019 Bund closing at the low of the day/week does not give bulls any confidence for Monday. Further losses target 172.00, 171.85/80...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators reduced their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets again this week, according to the latest...

Another round of central bank easing is underway. So why are bond yields rising?The 10-year US Treasury bond yield rose from a recent low of 1.47% on 9/4 to 1.72% on Tuesday. The record low was 1.37%,...

The thing about R* is mostly that it doesn’t really make much sense when you stop and think about it; which you aren’t meant to do. It is a reaction to unanticipated reality, a world that...

U.S. Treasury Bond Yields – 2, 5, 10, 30 Year DurationsThe past year has seen treasury bond yields decline sharply, yet in an orderly fashion. This has spurred recession concerns...