Bonds Analysis & Opinion

An inverted yield curve is said to be indicative of a recession. Why? Because the last 7 recessions were all preceded by an inverted yield curve. The yield curve we are referencing is the...

The bloom certainly seems to be off the Treasury Bond rose as of late. During the all-too-brief drop in equity prices, bonds and gold were the two safe havens. Both of these have been...

Are junk bonds about to send stocks a bullish message? A breakout test is in play that will go a long way to answering that question. Junk Bond ETF JNK is currently testing the January...

Suddenly everyone is once again singing the praises of long-term treasuries. And on the face of it, why not? With interest rates seemingly headed to negative whatever, a pure play on interest rates...

Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators raised their bearish net positions in the US 10 Year T-Note Futures markets this week following a sharp reduction...

US economic growth has been robust in recent quarters, supporting global demand through a period of weakness associated with a manufacturing slump and increased uncertainty. Indeed, it is not a...

Government bonds have experienced a massive rally over the past 4 months. The question is, could that rally be over or is it just ready to take a breather? Hard to say. Government Bond...

One of the main drivers of gold prices recently has been the plunge in long-term interest rates. Gold is very negatively correlated to the change in real yields: when they fall it is bullish for the...

Those that have followed my bond analysis since November have made quite a bit of money. While the stock market is basically in the same place it was back in the early fall of 2018 when we went long...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators cut back on their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest...

On August 29, negative-yielding debt topped the $17 trillion mark. Nearly all of that is outside the US. Bloomberg comments on the Unstoppable Surge in Negative Yields. The global stock of...

Over the past 5 weeks, 10-Year yields have declined 26%, 5-year yields are down 24% and the 2 year is down 17%. Are more yield declines ahead? The question is, how would stocks react if...

It’s a rough world for yield-hungry investors these days. As interest rates plunge near and far, in some cases diving into negative terrain, searching for a respectable payout in the financial...