The National Bank of Canada Analysis

U.S. Difficult To Permanently Improve Trade Balance: April 17, 2012 By The National Bank of Canada - Apr 17, 2012

February’s US trade report showed the lowest deficit in four months, helped by a sharp drop in oil imports and a smaller trade deficit with China. While that’s a move in the right...

U.S. Jobs Market: April 12, 2012 By The National Bank of Canada - Apr 12, 2012

To an extent, the market’s obsession with monthly job numbers is understandable. Over time, employment is the key determinant of economic growth, consumer spending, personal incomes and...

215.6K Canadian Housing Starts In March: April 12, 2012 By The National Bank of Canada - Apr 12, 2012

FactsIn Canada, an annual rate of 215.6K housing units were started in March, up 10.3K or 5% from the upwardly revised rate of 205.3K units in February, and topping expectations. Urban starts...

Economic Indicators Review: April 11, 2012 By The National Bank of Canada - Apr 11, 2012

CanadaIn March, job creation surprised even the most optimistic. According to the Labour Force Survey, 82.3K jobs were added. As result, the unemployment rate sank two ticks to 7.2%, its lowest mark...

Major News This Week: April 10, 2012 By The National Bank of Canada - Apr 10, 2012

On Tuesday last week, the minutes of the March 13 FOMC Meeting were released, and they slightly contradicted Mr. Bernanke’s speech on March 26. Essentially, the minutes suggested that the U.S....

U.S. Retailers Slash Headcounts In March: April 10, 2012 By The National Bank of Canada - Apr 10, 2012

Labour markets disappointed in March with the BLS reporting the net creation of only 120,000 jobs, the worst showing in five months. Though most of the industries remained in hiring mode in March...

Economic Commentary: April 9, 2012 By The National Bank of Canada - Apr 09, 2012

• The week is starting off on a down note, with substantial declines on Asian and European markets. Disappointing U.S. jobs figures released on Friday also proved a setback to the loonie and...

Canada: Statcan Should Investigate Jobs Data Volatility By The National Bank of Canada - Apr 08, 2012

Just-released data shows the Canadian labour market finally emerging from its recent soft patch on the back an outsized gain of 82,300 jobs in March, the best showing in 3.5 years. Not only is this...

Canadian Employment Surges In March By The National Bank of Canada - Apr 08, 2012

FactsTotal employment surged in March (+82.3K) following a decrease of 2.8K jobs in February. Strong gains were observed in full-time jobs (+70.0K) while parttime jobs posted also an increase of...

Mining Stocks Hovering Near Pre-QE1 Level: April 8, 2012 By The National Bank of Canada - Apr 06, 2012

Global equities have struggled in recent days with the commodity-related sectors taking the brunt of the decline. Energy, base metals and gold stocks remain more than 20% off their cyclical peaks of a...

Fiscal Balance Scheduled For Next Year By The National Bank of Canada - Apr 05, 2012

HighlightsBudget balance remains targeted for 2013-14.The fiscal year just ended is estimated to have produced a deficit of $260.8 million instead of the deficit of $389.6 million budgeted last...

The Coup In Mali: Looking Ahead By The National Bank of Canada - Apr 05, 2012

Randgold Resources (GOLD-NASDAQ) -17% since March 21st.Avion Gold Corp. (AVR-TSX) -27% since March 21st.Bottom LineWhile the current political instability and uncertainty in Mali will persist for some...

Grasping At Straws: A Tentative Agreement On An Enlarged Bailout Fund Helps To Boost Confidence By The National Bank of Canada - Apr 05, 2012

• The euro is holding firm for now, with liquidity injections by the ECB and a tentative agreement on an enlarged bailout fund helping to boost confidence. But investors may be grasping at straws...

Large-Business Employment: Still No Rebound In Ontario And Quebec By The National Bank of Canada - Apr 05, 2012

Summary• Nationwide, large private-sector businesses have outperformed their smaller counterparts in terms of job creation since 2007Q1. However, this big picture hidesconsiderable regional...

Labour Market Dichotomy In The Eurozone By The National Bank of Canada - Apr 03, 2012

If this isn’t a recession in the eurozone, it certainly feels like it. In February, the unemployment rate reached 10.8%, the highest in fourteen years. Spain’s already mind-boggling...

Forex Snapshot: April 3, 2012 By The National Bank of Canada - Apr 03, 2012

Major News This WeekA third round of quantitative easing is not off the table! In a speech delivered last Monday to the Business Economists, Mr. Bernanke mentioned that the current employment data are...

Canada Federal Budget: Relief For Boomers, Not For Civil Servants By The National Bank of Canada - Apr 01, 2012

Some Relief For Boomers, But Not For Civil ServantsHighlightsThe deficit for 2011-12 is estimated at $24.9 billion, $6.1 billion less than in last November’s update. Of this improvement, $3...