The National Bank of Canada Analysis

Canada: Lumber Exports to the U.S. Set to Rise By The National Bank of Canada - Feb 16, 2012

U.S. home builder confidence continues to improve at a brisk pace. According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), builder sentiment jumped four points in February. This outcome was all...

Canada: Autos sales soared in Q4 By The National Bank of Canada - Feb 15, 2012

While today’s new vehicle sales data showed that December sales were down 3%, that nonetheless concluded a very strong Q4 for auto dealerships which saw sales grow at a 9% annualized pace in the...

FX Snapshot: USD Continues to Trade in Narrow Range By The National Bank of Canada - Feb 14, 2012

Major News this WeekAgainst all expectations, the markets barely reacted to statements released last week following meetings of the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. As expected, they...

Economic Indicators Review: Week of February 13, 2012 By The National Bank of Canada - Feb 14, 2012

Canada – Housing starts edged down to 197.9K units in January from a downwardly revised 199.9K in December. That was nonetheless much better than consensus expectations. Urban single family...

U.S.: Trade Deficit Not as Bad as Headline Suggests By The National Bank of Canada - Feb 13, 2012

With December’s $48.8 bn trade deficit, the tally for 2011 as a whole rose to $558 bn or 3.7% of GDP, a three-year high. Looking at those numbers, one could argue that the U.S. is heading down...

Canadian Merchandise Trade Surplus Hits Three-Year High in December By The National Bank of Canada - Feb 12, 2012

FACTS: Canada’s merchandise trade surplus soared in December to C$2.7 bn, more than triple consensus expectations. That was the highest surplus in over three years. That coincided with the...

U.S.: No Relief at the Pump in 2012? By The National Bank of Canada - Feb 12, 2012

The U.S. Department of Energy released its latest Energy Outlook this week. The report provided forecasts for the average price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of $100.40/Bbl in 2012 and stated...

Canadian housing starts edged down in January By The National Bank of Canada - Feb 08, 2012

FACTS: Canadian housing starts edged down to 197.9K units in January from a slightly revised 199.9K in December. Urban starts decreased 5K, or 2.8%, to 176.6K. Starts in rural areas increased 3K to...

Canada: Import Prices on the Rise Despite Loonie’s Strength By The National Bank of Canada - Feb 07, 2012

Conditions in the 2000s were highly conducive to keeping inflation in Canada in check. The massive influx of cheap Asian imports and the loonie’s sharp ascent contributed to curb the progression...

Major News to Look for This Week By The National Bank of Canada - Feb 07, 2012

Last week was another positive week for stock markets and the Canadian dollar. Our loonie and the U.S. stock markets took off on Friday after the release of U.S. employment data, which shattered all...

Canada: Measuring Government Debt By The National Bank of Canada - Feb 07, 2012

Summary• Canada is one of the rare countries where the public pension system enjoys a positive net worth that serves to finance current pensions.• This net worth contributes to lower...

World Credit Watch: February 2012 By The National Bank of Canada - Feb 06, 2012

FACTS: Total employment edged up in January (+2.3K) following an increase of 21.7K jobs in December. Losses were observed in full-time jobs (-3.6K) while part-time jobs posted an increase of 5.9K. The...

U.S. Employment Expanded in January By The National Bank of Canada - Feb 06, 2012

Private payroll employment expanded 257,000 in January, the best showing in nine months. This figure was all the more impressive as it came on the heels of a 220,000 gain in December. Recent hiring...

Euro Zone Leaders Agree on Fiscal Compact By The National Bank of Canada - Feb 03, 2012

The new year started off with a bang; not just with a strong global stock market rally belittling S&P’s European ratings downgrades, but also with significant announcements on both sides of...

Equity Highlights: February 2012 By The National Bank of Canada - Feb 01, 2012

An upbeat start to 2012Equity markets seem to have got some mojo back in the first month of the year. At this writing the MSCI All Country index is up 4.0% year to date. The drivers have been...

Canadian GDP Decreased in November By The National Bank of Canada - Feb 01, 2012

FACTS: Real GDP decreased in November after being flat in October (top chart). Activity dropped in the goods producing sector (-0.6%) after decreasing 0.1% in the previous month. Mining & oil...

Markets Ignore Unresolved Problems in the Eurozone By The National Bank of Canada - Jan 31, 2012

The markets have clearly decided to ignore all the unresolved problems in the eurozone. The main U.S. and Canadian exchanges have risen 4.57% and 3.05%, respectively, since the beginning of the year....