The National Bank of Canada Analysis

Canada: Nominal GDP to Support Public Finances By The National Bank of Canada - Mar 04, 2012

Canada’s GDP report for the fourth quarter was good not just in real terms, with GDP growing 1.8% annualized on top of an upwardly revised Q3 growth of 4.2%, but also in nominal terms. The...

Canada: Investment Intentions Remain Positive in 2012 By The National Bank of Canada - Mar 02, 2012

A survey published today by Statistics Canada showed that total non-residential investments are expected to grow 7.2% (or $19.8 billions) in 2012. As today’s Hot Chart shows, this means a new...

December: Trade Deficit Narrows Sharply By The National Bank of Canada - Mar 01, 2012

FACTS: The Institut de la statistique du Québec reports that Quebec’s trade deficit fell $1.3 billion in December to $427 million (top chart). The value of exports rose $702 million...

U.S.Business Investment Softens Temporarily By The National Bank of Canada - Feb 29, 2012

January’s durable goods report clearly pointed to a softening of business investment in the first quarter. The sharp drop in shipments of non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft means that...

Major News this Week By The National Bank of Canada - Feb 28, 2012

After having kept us on the edges of our seats for almost two years, we have witnessed a major plot twist our Greek soap opera! The Eurogroup has finally agreed to disburse the 130 billion euro...

More Central Banks Turn to Easing By The National Bank of Canada - Feb 28, 2012

Over the last 10 months the FOMC policy stance has evolved significantly. Last April, with the FOMC on the way to completing its purchase of $600 billion in longterm Treasuries, the FOMC staff was...

The Spigots Open, the Bulls Return By The National Bank of Canada - Feb 28, 2012

It seems that the risk-on play is back in force. Many of the reflation trades show significant increases. Global equity markets are on the rise, high-yield and BBB corporate bonds are rallying and...

World: The Decoupling Begins By The National Bank of Canada - Feb 28, 2012

A disorderly Greek default has been headed off but the euro zone remains the powder keg of the global economy. While fears for Greece’s public finances are still running high, European leaders...

World: Gasoline Price Surge will Tax Growth By The National Bank of Canada - Feb 28, 2012

Energy price inflation is complicating the outlook for global growth. Our forecast calling for 3.5% global GDP growth in 2012 was based on crude oil averaging around $90/barrel for the WTI. While it...

Canada: Factory Profit Margins at 11 Year High By The National Bank of Canada - Feb 26, 2012

Corporate Canada ended 2011 on a very strong footing. According to Statistics Canada, corporate profits rose 9% sequentially in Q4, the best showing in two years. The performance of the manufacturing...

World Output and Trade Hit Record High in December By The National Bank of Canada - Feb 22, 2012

The global economy continues to exhibit uncanny resilience. According to just-released data by the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Policy Analysis, global volume trade flows rose 1.5% in December to an...

Canadian Retail Sales Fell 0.2% in December By The National Bank of Canada - Feb 21, 2012

FACTS: Canadian retail sales fell 0.2% in December in line with consensus expectations. That was the first drop in sales in five months (top chart). The decline was partly driven by weak auto...

Are Fears of Imminent Drop in Canadian Housing Prices Overblown? By The National Bank of Canada - Feb 21, 2012

Summary• For several months now, various analysts have expressed fears regarding the residential real estate sector in Canada based on ratios of house prices to income or rent. In our opinion,...

FX Snapshot: February 21, 2012 By The National Bank of Canada - Feb 21, 2012

Major News this WeekThe Greek saga is looking more and more like a soap opera that is a bit long in the tooth. Last week’s news fluctuated, with one day bringing us closer to solving the...

Canadian Core CPI Rebounds in January By The National Bank of Canada - Feb 19, 2012

FACTS: Headline CPI inflation bounced back to 2.5% in January from 2.3% in December. Core CPI also increased to 2.1% from 1.9% a month before. On a monthly basis, headline CPI was up 0.4%, following a...

Canada: Manufacturing Sales Up 6% in December By The National Bank of Canada - Feb 19, 2012

FACTS: Canada’s manufacturing sales rose 0.6% in December, a fifth increase in six months. The increase is well below consensus, but this is mostly due to sales of petroleum & coal products...

Canada: Still a Safe Haven for Foreign Investors By The National Bank of Canada - Feb 19, 2012

Foreign investors bought a net amount of $95.6 billion of Canadian securities in 2011. While this amount is lower than in 2010 and 2009, today’s Hot Chart shows that it still represented 5.6% of...