The National Bank of Canada Analysis

Geopolitical News To Continue Moving Markets By The National Bank of Canada - Jun 19, 2012

Major News This WeekAfter weeks of talk and speculation about the elections in Greece and how they might lead to Greece exiting the eurozone, we can remove an unknown from the equation: the Greek...

Bank Of England New Twist, Some Thoughts For The Fed By The National Bank of Canada - Jun 19, 2012

Contrary to Fed Vice Chairman Yellen, who clearly sounded more than willing to take more insurance against adverse shocks that could compromise the fulfillment of the Fed job mandate, Chairman...

European Debt Crisis Not Calmed By Greek Elections By The National Bank of Canada - Jun 19, 2012

Overview: The Greek electoral outcome has not changed the trajectory of the European debt crisis. At best, it will provide a very brief lull in the continuing European storm. The inability of Greece...

Canadian Manufacturing Sales Retreated In April By The National Bank of Canada - Jun 17, 2012

Facts: Canada’s manufacturing sales retreated 0.8% in April after a 1.9% jump in March. Mostly responsible for the decline were declines in sales of aerospace products (-33.7%) and petroleum...

Price Targets For S&P/TSX Are Too Optimistic By The National Bank of Canada - Jun 17, 2012

In today’s Hot Charts we review market expectations for the S&P/TSX composite index. At the current time, bottom up price forecasts for the TSX suggest that the index will be trading just...

France: Bank Lending Survey Shows More Weakness By The National Bank of Canada - Jun 14, 2012

Earlier this year, l’Institut National de la Satistique was forecasting GDP in France to be flat in Q1 and to reaccelerate modestly in the second quarter (+0.2%) with job creation, consumption...

U.S. Consumers Increased Spending On Discretionary Items In May By The National Bank of Canada - Jun 14, 2012

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, not only U.S. retail sales declined 0.2% in May, but they did so from a lower level than previously thought, since March and April levels have been revised down...

Major News For The Week Of June 11-15, 2012 By The National Bank of Canada - Jun 12, 2012

Last week was a veritable rollercoaster. The economic woes of the eurozone continue to take centre stage in global finance. Europe is not, however, the only economy to show signs of slowing down....

China: Europe’s Diminishing Influence On Growth By The National Bank of Canada - Jun 12, 2012

Concerns about a Chinese hard-landing have diminished somewhat lately. Last week’s surprise interest rate cut by the People’s Bank of China will help stimulate domestic demand in line with...

Canada: The Biggest Factory Job Surge In The OECD By The National Bank of Canada - Jun 12, 2012

Total job creation downshifted in May, but not in manufacturing. Canadian factories increased headcounts by 36,400. This brings to six the number of consecutive months of job creation, the longest...

Canadian Employment Rose In May By The National Bank of Canada - Jun 10, 2012

Facts: Total employment rose 7.7K in May following astonishing gains of 140.5K jobs in the two previous months. Both full-time (+1.4K) and part-time (+6.3K) jobs edged up. The goods-producing sector...

Canadian Merchandise Trade Returns To Deficit In April By The National Bank of Canada - Jun 10, 2012

Facts: Canada’s merchandise trade balance fell into deficit for the first time in six months in April. The CAD 367 million deficit was a result of falling exports (-1.2%) and rising imports...

BOC Keeps Tightening Bias But Tones Down Hawkish Language By The National Bank of Canada - Jun 06, 2012

As expected, the Bank of Canada left the overnight rate unchanged at 1.00% and toned down the hawkish language, acknowledging that global economic growth has weakened and citing that "risks remain...

A Look At Quebec Municipal Debt By The National Bank of Canada - Jun 05, 2012

IntroductionThe March issue of Urba, the magazine of the Union des municipalités du Québec, presented a survey of Quebec municipal finances. Among other findings, it reported aggregate...

Euro Finally Succumbs To Gravity By The National Bank of Canada - Jun 05, 2012

For months now, we’ve been warning about investor complacency regarding Europe. Markets had been grasping at straws, trying to see the positives even when there were none. And in May, the euro...

U.S.: Full-Time Jobs Down Again In May By The National Bank of Canada - Jun 03, 2012

The U.S. labour markets weakened markedly in May with the addition of only 69,000 jobs. This was all the more disappointing as it a followed a sharp downward revision the month before. One of the most...

Canadian Economy Expanded 1.9% In Q1 By The National Bank of Canada - Jun 03, 2012

FACTS: Canadian GDP grew 1.9% annualized in the first quarter of 2012 (top chart), in line with consensus expectations. That was well below the Bank of Canada’s estimate of 2.5% for the quarter....