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Canada: Statcan Should Investigate Jobs Data Volatility

ByThe National Bank of Canada
Published 04/08/2012, 02:46 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM

Just-released data shows the Canadian labour market finally emerging from its recent soft patch on the back an outsized gain of 82,300 jobs in March, the best showing in 3.5 years. Not only is this report very supportive for the domestic economy, it also confirms our view that the data published on Quebec in recent months pointing to the worst destruction of jobs since the 1982 recession was more statistical artifact than reality.

As today's Hot Chart shows, the trend in job creation in Quebec had become alarming with a 2.5 standard deviation negative move, a situation never before observed outside a recession. Fortunately, the province recorded its second largest monthly increase on record in March (+36,400 jobs). In light of this development, there is certainly a case to be made for Statistics Canada to investigate and explain the reasons for the extreme volatility of provincial data at this point in the economic cycle. This is after all a crucial time for both fiscal and monetary policymaking in Canada.
Canada: Statcan Should investigate Jobs Data Volatility

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