The National Bank of Canada Analysis

Canada: Household Indebtedness Moderated in Q4 By The National Bank of Canada - Mar 18, 2012

According to data released today by Statistics Canada, after seasonal adjustment, Canadian households increased their debt at a lower rate than their disposable income in Q4. As today’s Hot...

Canadian Manufacturing Sales Down 0.9% in January By The National Bank of Canada - Mar 18, 2012

FACTS: Canada’s manufacturing sales dropped 0.9% in December, the second decline in 7 months (top chart). Excluding a 34% dive in sales of aerospace products, sales were unchanged from December....

Europe: Is the Worst Really Behind Us? By The National Bank of Canada - Mar 15, 2012

European equity markets have recorded a solid advance since the start of Q4 2011 with the MSCI AC Europe index up 17% after loosing 18% in the first three quarters of 2011. Proactive measures taken by...

Canada: Half of Mining Investment to Occur in QC in 2012 By The National Bank of Canada - Mar 15, 2012

Quebec’s mining sector is becoming an important growth driver for the province. As today’s Hot Chart shows, investment intentions are expected to surge 62% in 2012, to a record $4.4...

U.S. Financial Repression: How Much Longer? By The National Bank of Canada - Mar 13, 2012

A look behind the curveFrom the mid 1950’s up to 1979, real interest rates were significantly lower than in the 20 years that followed Chairman Volker’s cold-turkey policy to cure the...

Major News this Week: March 13, 2012 By The National Bank of Canada - Mar 13, 2012

The news over the last few weeks has been chock full of economic data, political decisions and stories on escalating tensions in certain Middle Eastern countries. We have therefore provided a summary...

Economic Indicators Review: March 13, 2012 By The National Bank of Canada - Mar 13, 2012

Canada – In February, Canadian housing starts edged up to 201K units, roughly in line with consensus expectations. Urban starts sprang 6.0K, or 3.4%, to 182.8K. Rural starts fell 3K to 18.3K....

The Canadian Equity Market: Is it Cheap? By The National Bank of Canada - Mar 12, 2012

Equity market valuationsAdjusting for inflation or inflation expectations plays a critical role in fairly evaluating equity market valuation metrics over time. Canadian inflation history has gone...

Canadian Employment Disappoints Again in February By The National Bank of Canada - Mar 12, 2012

FACTS: Canadian employment fell 2.8K in February according to the Labour Force Survey. That was well below consensus expectations for a 15K gain. However, given the drop in the youth participation...

Canadian Merchandise Trade Surplus Narrows in January By The National Bank of Canada - Mar 12, 2012

FACTS: Canada’s merchandise trade surplus narrowed to C$2.1 bn in January (from C$2.9 bn in prior month) in line with consensus expectations (top chart). In January, exports fell 2.3% with...

U.S: Full-time Jobs are Finally Coming Back By The National Bank of Canada - Mar 12, 2012

Payroll jobs were up 227K jobs in February easily topping consensus expectations for a 210K gains. The U.S labour market has shown a reassuring consistency in recent months. Job creation over the last...

U.S.: Mortgage Loans Rise to Cyclical High in Q1 2012 By The National Bank of Canada - Mar 08, 2012

There has been a big improvement in homebuilder sentiment in recent months but this advance will be fleeting unless commercial banks resume lending for residential mortgages. After all, U.S....

Canada: Productivity Laggard, But Per Capita GDP Champion By The National Bank of Canada - Mar 07, 2012

Canada’s sluggish productivity performance in recent years is troublesome for some economists. It‘s because “doing more with less” has always been associated with a rise in...

Major CAD News This Week: March 6, 2012 By The National Bank of Canada - Mar 06, 2012

Last week we were treated to a very active currency market! The long-term financing operation (LTRO) conducted last Wednesday by the European Central Bank, combined with higher than anticipated growth...

Canada Better Positioned Economically Than in Past Two Decades By The National Bank of Canada - Mar 05, 2012

When and where you launch your professional career can mark you for life. For this junior economist joining the ranks of the Department of Finance in the early 1990s, Canada’s future seemed...

Are The Markets And Politicians Underestimating The Impact Of A Disorderly Greece Default And Eurozone Exit? By The National Bank of Canada - Mar 04, 2012

For the first time since the beginning of the eurozone debt crisis, there is growing belief among a number of politicians and analysts that Europe would be able to weather the impact of a disorderly...

Canada: Current Account Deficit Financed by Portfolio Flows By The National Bank of Canada - Mar 04, 2012

It’s now three years in a row that Canada’s current account, the broadest measure of trade, is in deficit. True, last year saw a slight narrowing of the deficit after the 2010 nadir, but...