Bonds Analysis & Opinion

The junk bond to BBB-rated bond spread and the spread between AAA to BBB bonds shows amazing complacency. It won't last. Fallen Angels BBB-rated bonds are just one notch above junk (also called...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators continued to cut back on their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest...

Q: I have followed your analysis of the 30 year with great interest and have been able to capture some of this move – thank you for the education.My question relates to the approximate...

I recently saw a post about the US 30Y T-Bond getting closer to its lower channel trend line. This channel goes back to the 1980s as seen here. Bonds have been in a bearish trend since the Federal...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators decreased their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets again this week, according to the latest Commitment...

I consider the T-Bill/10yr Treas to be a proxy for market psychology. You could call it ‘Behavioral Finance’.There is a lot of talk of ‘market tops’ and pending...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators sharply pulled back on their bearish net positions in the US 10 Year T-Note Futures markets this week, according to the latest...

There is something inherently wrong with this market. In a healthy market, stocks and bonds maintain a negative correlation. When stocks rise bonds tend to fall, and vice versa.The logic is simple....

Three Quickfire charts on US bond market sentiment. Some of these sentiment charts are clearly at an extreme - and that's usually when you go looking for contrarian signals. But then I look at a lot...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators reduced their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of...

One of the reasons I chose the investment management business as a career, is that I was fortunate to have been studying economics and Money & Banking, from 1978 to 1982, the period where Paul...

Yesterday the 10-year yield climbed to a new post-July 2016 (1.32%) high at 3.17%, the highest yield since July 2011, over 7 years ago!From a technical perspective, yesterday's surge above May-Oct...

Yesterday, the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 3.16% and depending on the source you listen to, 3.16% represents the highest yield since 2011 or 2008.The previous 10-year Treasury yield high for 2018...

Treasury yields blasted higher yesterday and the curve steepened as well. Let's investigate why. US Treasury yields jumped significantly; the action was downright ugly for Treasury bulls. And yields...