Bonds Analysis & Opinion

I consider the T-Bill/10yr Treas to be a proxy for market psychology. You could call it ‘Behavioral Finance’.There is a lot of talk of ‘market tops’ and pending...

Foreign bonds posted the strongest gain for the major asset classes last week, delivering a contrast with falling prices in equity markets around the world, based on a set of exchange-traded products...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators sharply pulled back on their bearish net positions in the US 10 Year T-Note Futures markets this week, according to the latest...

There is something inherently wrong with this market. In a healthy market, stocks and bonds maintain a negative correlation. When stocks rise bonds tend to fall, and vice versa.The logic is simple....

The worse things seem, the better the opportunities are for profit.Such is the very nature of investing. Baron Rothschild, an 18th-century British nobleman and member of the Rothschild banking family,...

Three Quickfire charts on US bond market sentiment. Some of these sentiment charts are clearly at an extreme - and that's usually when you go looking for contrarian signals. But then I look at a lot...

One of the reasons I chose the investment management business as a career, is that I was fortunate to have been studying economics and Money & Banking, from 1978 to 1982, the period where Paul...

Yesterday the 10-year yield climbed to a new post-July 2016 (1.32%) high at 3.17%, the highest yield since July 2011, over 7 years ago!From a technical perspective, yesterday's surge above May-Oct...

Treasury yields blasted higher yesterday and the curve steepened as well. Let's investigate why. US Treasury yields jumped significantly; the action was downright ugly for Treasury bulls. And yields...

When the Fed announced that they were going to stop Quantitative Easing the Bond market felt a shock. But is soon recovered and stopped bleeding. Then they announced the first interest rate hikes and...

Quick post. Here's a chart I featured in a recent report on global bonds. It's also one of the resident charts in the global-scan page of my weekly market chart pack....TO THE POINT: global sovereign...

Slowly, slowly, the wheel turns, and I’m very pleased to see bonds still in tip-top shape. I’ve removed the price bars so you can see the drawn objects and moving averages plainly and...

OK, first the bad news. In terms of the long-term, we are probably in the midst of a rising interest rate environment. Consider the information contained in Figure 1 from McClellan Financial...

In a year when we have seen commentators talking about the relative flatness of yield curves, we have a conundrum when we look at the US Treasury yield curve and the US muni yield curve (shown here as...