Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Bond flow around the April mortgage bond auction could be another source of downwards pressure on EUR/DKK FX forwards along with high net position. We reiterate our view that the EUR/DKK FX forward...

SummaryThe latest PPI and CPI reports indicate that price pressures are contained. The Beige Book contained weaker anecdotal comments. Three more Fed governors issued dovish statements. This week, the...

In late-November, I warned that plunging oil prices and the bursting of a Fed-driven bubble in the shale energy industry would also cause a bust in high-yield or “junk” bonds (because the...

The bounce is just about over.Multiple interventions, and active buying by the PPT have juiced stocks higher, but the Powers That Be cannot make the Everything Bubble whole again. The fact is that...

SummaryThe latest Fed Minutes indicate a clear change in policy. Speeches by Fed presidents support this analysis. The yield curve continues to narrow; we're seeing modest inversions in small sections...

United States 10-Year: I believe that the break below this multi-year support line of Treasury yields is a very positive indication for global equities rather than a signal of “return to...

SummaryFed Chairman Powell got the message from the markets. Other Fed governors are now taking a wait and see attitude. This is good, because the yield curve continues to narrow. As we start a new...

US Treasury bonds have been the subject of some debate since the Fed announced the end of its bond-buying programs. Rates had to go up, said the Fed. But they have not. Then the Fed started to run off...

The yield curve is inverted in six places. Notably, the 1-year T-Bill yield inverts with all durations through 7 years. Strong Recession Signal Today, the 1-YearT-Bill rate inverted with higher...

Muni yields rose in the first six weeks of this quarter – mostly in sympathy with US Treasuries (NYSE:UST). We saw the 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds rise 20 and 25 basis points...

As we collectively try to fight the boredom of the end of the trading year, I offer a simple and straightforward idea: shorting HYG with a stop at 81.25, just above its price gap.

Remember back when you took the SAT’s? Some of your friends did really well, scoring near 800 on each section, and moved on to other things. But others had that one section that was in the...

Friday Market CloseThe market has seen this horror movie before, and it’s being panned by bulls and cheered by bears. The title could be “Deja Vu All Over Again: The...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators decreased their bearish net positions in the US 10 Year T-Note Futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of...