Bonds Analysis & Opinion

It’s good to wake up to a lot of red on the screen. First of all, the bond breakdown I’ve been touting has made superb progress. One level broken, and one to go!

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators sharply reduced their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment...

The US yield curve isn’t the only one on the precipice. There are any number of them that are getting attention for all the wrong reasons. At least those rationalizations provided by mainstream...

Bund holding below 162.55/50 saw us test the short term 50% Fibonacci at 162.37. I do not think this is particularly significant & further losses target 162.24/20 & strong support at...

While contrarians could argue that the US Dollar was poised for a slowdown if not a reversal of its oversold status, what appears to have moved the needle in favour of the world’s reserve...

With numerous stock indices hitting all-time highs, is it possible that interest rates could be peaking? It does seem unlikely in my humble opinion. This chart looks at the yield of the 10-year note...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators slightly increased their record high bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the...

Another bond/macro chart, here's the flash composite DM manufacturing PMI against the US 10-year bond yield. The composite DM flash PMI (we construct it using Markit data and IMF GDP weights) dropped...

The difference in the widely followed spread in 10- and 2-year Treasuries slipped to 21 basis points on Thursday (August 23), marking yet another 11-year low, based on daily data via Treasury.gov. The...

One of the hottest issues among economists and financial analysts is the yield curve. Investors worry that it is likely to invert soon, bringing the current expansion to an end. And even the FOMC...

The saying goes “Quitters never win and winners never quit”. A show of attitude, but also a firm statement that to succeed you need to try and try again. It is an admirable way to address...

Following on from yesterday's post on Cross Asset Volatility, the chart of today is a focus on bond volatility. Specifically what we've got here is a look at the rolling annual sum of daily changes in...

German Bund holding above 163.20 targets 163.35 and first resistance at 163.45/41. Above 163.50 then targets 163.70/75 before a retest of 163.86/90. Holding below 163.15 re-targets 162.95/92 then...

The FOMC statement for the July-August 2018 policy meeting exceeded expectations once more. It’s difficult for the Committee to continually do this since the whole point of these things is to...