Bonds Analysis & Opinion

With numerous stock indices hitting all-time highs, is it possible that interest rates could be peaking? It does seem unlikely in my humble opinion. This chart looks at the yield of the 10-year note...

I was going through my fixed income strategy models and there were a number of really interesting charts, but I thought this one in particular was worth sharing. It shows in the red line the average...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators slightly increased their record high bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the...

Another bond/macro chart, here's the flash composite DM manufacturing PMI against the US 10-year bond yield. The composite DM flash PMI (we construct it using Markit data and IMF GDP weights) dropped...

SummaryThe yield curve continues to narrow. Chairman Powell argued for a slow and steady approach to policy. Three other presidents gave speeches and policy prescriptions. It's been a few weeks since...

The difference in the widely followed spread in 10- and 2-year Treasuries slipped to 21 basis points on Thursday (August 23), marking yet another 11-year low, based on daily data via Treasury.gov. The...

The saying goes “Quitters never win and winners never quit”. A show of attitude, but also a firm statement that to succeed you need to try and try again. It is an admirable way to address...

Following on from yesterday's post on Cross Asset Volatility, the chart of today is a focus on bond volatility. Specifically what we've got here is a look at the rolling annual sum of daily changes in...

The FOMC statement for the July-August 2018 policy meeting exceeded expectations once more. It’s difficult for the Committee to continually do this since the whole point of these things is to...

The only red on my screen this morning (and it’s down only the tiniest bit) is bonds. This is a market I watch terribly closely, because as I’ve said through most of 2018, the core shift...

What is it that’s different in August? If there was some relative calm in global markets in June and July it certainly disappeared this month. The dollar shot higher and global liquidity...

Bund holding below 163.60/65 targets 163.45/41. Below 163.35 risks a slide as far as 163.20/15. Try longs with stops below 163.10. A break lower targets 162.95/92 then strong support at 162.75/65. Try...

Over the last several months I’ve been writing about the bond market throwing us a possible curveball. Meaning, instead of ongoing rising interest rates we may see rates falling.Yesterday, the...

Speculators in Treasury futures are currently holding record short positions on longer term bonds, ahead of next month's FOMC meeting, betting on continued rate hikes as well as the US economy easing...