Bonds Analysis & Opinion

If we can get away from the talk of 66,000 on the Dow (eyes roll) I wanted to focus on a favorite topic of mine, which is the falling bond market: The above chart of the /ZB shows what a weak session...

Is the Bank of Japan Finally Losing Control?While we like to focus on the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) because it controls the global reserve currency (the US dollar) and therefore is the most...

Interest rate marketsU.S. interest rates have experienced a generational low. The long-term trend is toward higher rates (lower prices). Treasury Markets – T-Notes The COT profile is at all-time...

Japan had six consecutive recessions without an inverted yield curve. There is no reason it can't happen here. The above chart shows the last six recessions. I do not believe any points of the curve...

The lead-in chart, also posted yesterday, shows the progression of treasury shorts. Let's now look at yields and timing. Timing ​ September 5, 2017 with the 10-year yield at 2.04%, was an...

COT Futures reports for Tuesday came out today. Treasury bears are pressing short positions. I see reports of new record shorts but I think we slightly missed the mark. Big Specs In the past month,...

Summary St. Louis Fed President Bullard is an atypical Fed speaker. He argues that the yield curve narrowing will continue under current circumstances. He also argues the Fed should consider stopping...

Back in May, after hovering just below the 3% mark for several weeks, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note finally burst through the 3% level and spiked up to 3.11%. But after the...

The US bond market is going the wrong way…As I outlined in my bestselling book The Everything Bubble: The Endgame For Central Bank Policy, when the US completely severed the US dollar from the...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators increased their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of...

During the past year, or so, U.S. 2-Year Treasury Yields have shot up sharply, in comparison with 10-Year Yields, as shown on the following weekly price comparison chart and percentage comparison...

The yield on the 3-month US Treasury bill is pushing above 2% today for the first time since 2008. The yield had briefly dipped below zero as recently as late 2015. Although today's yield seems high,...

The most important bond in the world is the 10-Year US Treasury bond.This bond represents the “risk-free” rate of return for a total economic cycle (roughly 10 years) denominated in the...

Given that some of the retail sales that were expected in June were actually booked in May is unlikely to lead to a large revision of expectations for Q2 US GDP, the first estimate of which is due in...