Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Italy's 10-Year bond yield surged around the Italian election. There's heavy issuance in Sept and ECB tapering in Oct. The yield on Italian bonds surged in May on the victory of the League- and Five...

The US yield curve, as indicated by the spread between the 10-year and 2-year T-Note yields, made a new 10-year extreme over the past fortnight, meaning that it recently became the...

SummaryThe corporate bond market has sold-off over the last year. But it has done so in conjunction with a widening of the Treasury market. The Treasury market continues to tighten. I wrote about the...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators pushed their record high bearish net positions higher in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest...

Helping stocks to recover from the year’s lows in early February is the eerie calm in the US bond market. The Bond Vigilante Model suggests that the 10-year Treasury bond yield tends to trade...

If we can get away from the talk of 66,000 on the Dow (eyes roll) I wanted to focus on a favorite topic of mine, which is the falling bond market: The above chart of the /ZB shows what a weak session...

Interest rate marketsU.S. interest rates have experienced a generational low. The long-term trend is toward higher rates (lower prices). Treasury Markets – T-Notes The COT profile is at all-time...

Japan had six consecutive recessions without an inverted yield curve. There is no reason it can't happen here. The above chart shows the last six recessions. I do not believe any points of the curve...

COT Futures reports for Tuesday came out today. Treasury bears are pressing short positions. I see reports of new record shorts but I think we slightly missed the mark. Big Specs In the past month,...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators raised their bearish net positions in the US 10 Year T-Note Futures markets to a new record high this week, according to the...

Summary St. Louis Fed President Bullard is an atypical Fed speaker. He argues that the yield curve narrowing will continue under current circumstances. He also argues the Fed should consider stopping...

Back in May, after hovering just below the 3% mark for several weeks, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note finally burst through the 3% level and spiked up to 3.11%. But after the...

The U.S. bond market is going the wrong way.As I outlined in my bestselling book The Everything Bubble: The Endgame For Central Bank Policy, when the U.S. completely severed the U.S. dollar from the...

The US bond market is going the wrong way…As I outlined in my bestselling book The Everything Bubble: The Endgame For Central Bank Policy, when the US completely severed the US dollar from the...