Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Summary The Federal Reserve argues that the labor market is at/near full employment and that prices are at/near its preferred 2% level. It states - in no uncertain terms - that it will continue to...

With all the mass hysteria in the business media about the incredibly flattening yield curve, one would think that the consequences of a flat curve would be devastating. History has shown than when...

Have interest rates increased over the past couple of years? Yes. Have interest rates broken above long-term falling channels? No. Interest rates (2, 5, 10 & 30-Year yields) are all testing...

In professional baseball, there is a performance standard called the Mendoza Line, a term coined in 1979 and named after Mario Mendoza, a player that struggled to hit consistently throughout his...

The June payroll report last week showed that average hourly earnings rose just +0.19% versus the +0.3% expected, yet the 10-year Treasury yield couldn’t generate any upside volume on the...

The seemingly arcane issue of the shape of the US yield curve has percolated into a cause celebre. The difference between the US two-year yield and 10-year yield has been trending down for several...

Price has a way of being drawn to significant support and resistance areas. What happens once it gets there often provides useful and important information about what comes next. So keep a close eye...

It is back to the grind, but at lest it is a short tail to the week. The fireworks celebrations Wednesday were incredible, but they are over now. You will have to wait until next year for that...

Recently the ECB announced that they consider buying more long-term bonds from next year as part of the QE reinvestment. This will more likely end-up with bullish flattening in the 10-30 year zone....

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators cut back on their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of...

The second quarter of 2018 saw a continuation of themes apparent in the first quarter. In June the Federal Reserve continued raising rates to a federal funds rate target that now stands at...

Due to the Fed raising interest rates, the short-end of the curve is moving higher at an accelerated rate. The long-end of the curve is moving higher, but at a slower pace. The yield curve is...

The tax-free bond market has continued to benefit from the drop in supply so far in 2018. To recap, the end of 2017 saw a bulge in supply as issuers tried to beat the tax-cut bill that Congress was...

The big news of the past week is that according to Bloomberg, Russia cut its holdings of US Treasuries in half in the month of April.Although investors usually seek safety in US debt, Russia cut its...