Bonds Analysis & Opinion

The only red on my screen this morning (and it’s down only the tiniest bit) is bonds. This is a market I watch terribly closely, because as I’ve said through most of 2018, the core shift...

What is it that’s different in August? If there was some relative calm in global markets in June and July it certainly disappeared this month. The dollar shot higher and global liquidity...

Bund holding below 163.60/65 targets 163.45/41. Below 163.35 risks a slide as far as 163.20/15. Try longs with stops below 163.10. A break lower targets 162.95/92 then strong support at 162.75/65. Try...

Over the last several months I’ve been writing about the bond market throwing us a possible curveball. Meaning, instead of ongoing rising interest rates we may see rates falling.Yesterday, the...

Speculators in Treasury futures are currently holding record short positions on longer term bonds, ahead of next month's FOMC meeting, betting on continued rate hikes as well as the US economy easing...

The commitment of traders report shows Treasury bears are record short 10-year Treasury futures. They will cover. The Treasury bears will cover, but at what price? That's an unknown, but we can see...

Bund minor resistance at 163.60/55 but above 163.70 retests trend line resistance at 163.84/86. A break above 163.97/164.02 tests the May high at 164.15/19. Holding 163.60/55 retests strong support at...

Recently my firm replaced all of our short-term bond exchange-traded funds with U.S. Treasury bills. The core motive for this decision was not to pick up a few points of extra yield, though...

Bund holding above the July high at 163.39 & re-targets 163.60/64 in oversold conditions. There is a good chance we trade sideways to lower to ease these conditions. However a break higher meets...

Above compares the PIMCO High Yield A to the S&P 500 over the past 20-years. Junk bonds diverged from the S&P 500 for nearly 24-months, prior to stocks peaking in 2000. Junk bonds diverged...

As I tweeted out last night, I spent the entire weekend putting the finishing touches on my latest book, and I am tremendously proud of it. I will be telling you about it (and how to get it) here on...

SummaryThis was a quiet week in the Treasury market. I look at the yield curve at the beginning of August and compare it to the yield curve at the beginning of each of the last seven months. I also...

US 10 Year Note Futures Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators decreased their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest...

The trend for interest rates over the past couple of years is clearly higher, as yields have risen sharply. The United States 10-Year trend over the past 6 years is flat and the same can be said for...