Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Men have long dreamed of optimal outcomes. There has to be a better way, a person will say every generation. Freedom is far too messy and unpredictable. Everybody hates the fat tails, unless and until...

Bond flow around the April mortgage bond auction could be another source of downwards pressure on EUR/DKK FX forwards along with high net position. We reiterate our view that the EUR/DKK FX forward...

SummaryThe latest PPI and CPI reports indicate that price pressures are contained. The Beige Book contained weaker anecdotal comments. Three more Fed governors issued dovish statements. This week, the...

In late-November, I warned that plunging oil prices and the bursting of a Fed-driven bubble in the shale energy industry would also cause a bust in high-yield or “junk” bonds (because the...

The bounce is just about over.Multiple interventions, and active buying by the PPT have juiced stocks higher, but the Powers That Be cannot make the Everything Bubble whole again. The fact is that...

SummaryThe latest Fed Minutes indicate a clear change in policy. Speeches by Fed presidents support this analysis. The yield curve continues to narrow; we're seeing modest inversions in small sections...

It started with pants. Guys started to pull them down exposing their underwear. Sagging pants they called it. It became a cultural thing. You saw it everywhere. Stories appeared with kids unable to...

SummaryFed Chairman Powell got the message from the markets. Other Fed governors are now taking a wait and see attitude. This is good, because the yield curve continues to narrow. As we start a new...

After a poor start to the quarter, the Treasury market rebounded nicely over the month of December, providing positive performance across the Treasury curve as the equity market suffered from negative...

The yield curve is inverted in six places. Notably, the 1-year T-Bill yield inverts with all durations through 7 years. Strong Recession Signal Today, the 1-YearT-Bill rate inverted with higher...

Muni yields rose in the first six weeks of this quarter – mostly in sympathy with US Treasuries (NYSE:UST). We saw the 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds rise 20 and 25 basis points...

As we collectively try to fight the boredom of the end of the trading year, I offer a simple and straightforward idea: shorting HYG with a stop at 81.25, just above its price gap.

Remember back when you took the SAT’s? Some of your friends did really well, scoring near 800 on each section, and moved on to other things. But others had that one section that was in the...

Friday Market CloseThe market has seen this horror movie before, and it’s being panned by bulls and cheered by bears. The title could be “Deja Vu All Over Again: The...