Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Treasury Bonds have been like a cat with 9 lives. Maybe even more than 9 lives. Every time you think the end of a 30 plus year uptrend in prices is about to end, they befuddle and reverse. Will that...

Summary Anecdotal data contained in the latest Beige Book was modestly bearish. Leading indicators are also flashing yellow. The Fed's dot indicates the Fed may raise rates to such a degree that...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators sharply added to their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment...

SummaryMarkets formally on inversion watch The long-end of the curve has started to come in as traders see slower growth, lower inflationary pressure The short-end of the curve is rising; we've seen...

A funny thing happened on the way that bond bear market. But first the promised charts:*Figure 1 strongly suggests that the next major move in bond yields is higher (as yields tend to move in roughly...

A lot about the stock market’s future will depend upon whether the U.S. bond yields will climb above their-temporarily lost- daily support. Original post

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators increased their bearish net positions in the US 10 Year T-Note Futures markets last week, according to the latest Commitment of...

SummaryThe most recent Beige Book has more bearish commentary than we've seen over the last few years. According to the WSJ, the Fed is thinking about pausing its rate hiking program after a December...

The yield curve inverts when the Fed keeps hiking in the face of a slowdown. Bianco research noted today "There has not been one instance where the 2-year 5-year spread inverts and the 3-month 10-year...

Last week when Jerome Powell – the Federal Reserve Chairman – said that we were now “just below” the neutral rate of interest, markets soared and bonds rallied.In case you...

The last three weeks of November saw a bounce in the bond market, with intermediate and longer bond yields falling after spending most of 2018 rising.If we look at the US Treasury market (chart 1), we...

I missed another inversion today. So did Bloomberg. A reader of mine caught it from a chart I posted. In addition to the inversion between the 5- and 3-year yields. Today also sported a smaller...

As you’ve no doubt heard, US President Trump and Chinese President Xi were able to reach a ceasefire agreement at the G20 summit in Argentina over the weekend.In exchange for the US agreeing to...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators continued to cut back on their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest...