Bonds Analysis & Opinion

This chart looks at junk-bond fund PHDAX and the S&P 500 over the past 25 years. Junk bonds sent bearish messages before stocks peaked in 2000 and 2007. Bearish divergences took place for 24...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators strongly reduced their bearish net positions in the US 10 Year T-Note Futures markets this week, according to the latest...

This chart looks at the yield of the 2-year note and its 5.5-year performance since 1999. The 2-year yield looks to have double bottomed in 2013 and since then it has been swiftly moving higher inside...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators raised their bearish net positions in the US 10 Year T-Note Futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of...

Here’s our first take after the midterm elections.The polls actually got it right, with the Democrats taking the House of Representatives and the Republicans enjoying a slight pickup in the...

Yesterday was election day in the US. As results continue to come in voters in the United States are deciding which political party controls Congress.From the perspective of the financial markets, it...

My bearish-on-bonds disposition has remain unaltered all year, .and recent activity is pushing us toward what could be an important next step. Of course, the really big step is already done: that is,...

One aspect to the October drop in stocks is that there was no flight to Treasuries. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped from 3.05% on 9/28 to 3.15% by 10/31 and the 30-year Treasury jumped from 3.13% to...

It’s normal for the stock market to ignore a rising interest-rate trend for a long time. The reason is that while the interest rate is a major determinant of the value of most corporations, the...

The junk bond to BBB-rated bond spread and the spread between AAA to BBB bonds shows amazing complacency. It won't last. Fallen Angels BBB-rated bonds are just one notch above junk (also called...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators continued to cut back on their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest...

Q: I have followed your analysis of the 30 year with great interest and have been able to capture some of this move – thank you for the education.My question relates to the approximate...

I recently saw a post about the US 30Y T-Bond getting closer to its lower channel trend line. This channel goes back to the 1980s as seen here. Bonds have been in a bearish trend since the Federal...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators decreased their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets again this week, according to the latest Commitment...