The National Bank of Canada Analysis

Consumption Slowdown In Canada: Transitory Or Trend? By The National Bank of Canada - Jul 17, 2012

Summary• Consumption in Canada disappointed in 2012Q1. This translated into 12-month growth of 1.9%, its weakest showing since 2001, not counting the recent recession. What’s more, retail...

Euro's Bearish Trend Continues By The National Bank of Canada - Jul 17, 2012

Major News This WeekLast week once again confirmed the euro’s bearish trend. To the great pleasure of buyers of the single currency, the EUR/CAD pair reached an historic low and the EUR/USD fell...

Canada: Softer Consumption Growth Ahead By The National Bank of Canada - Jul 15, 2012

Over the last five years, consumption in Canada has outperformed most other significant developed countries thanks to a solid performance of the labour and housing markets. Over that period, real...

U.S. Fed Can Do Something About Employment By The National Bank of Canada - Jul 15, 2012

Looking at the recent Fed minutes, it’s clear that the FOMC doesn’t seem too confident about its abilities to help the labour market ― it attributes much of the latter’s...

Canadian Trade Deficit Increases Slightly In May By The National Bank of Canada - Jul 12, 2012

Facts: Canada’s merchandise trade deficit edged up from $623 million to $793 million in May as imports grew 0.4% and exports were flat. Exports rose $187 million (+0.5%) to $37.9B. Higher...

Canada: 222.7K Housing Starts In June By The National Bank of Canada - Jul 11, 2012

Facts: In Canada, for a seventh month in a row, housing starts exceeded 200K units at an annual rate in June (top chart), reaching 222.7K, or 2.4% over the upwardly revised 217.4K units started in...

Economic Indicators Review: June 2012 By The National Bank of Canada - Jul 10, 2012

Canada – In June, employment rose by 7.3k, overshooting consensus expectations for a 5k hike and confounding our forecast for a 10k decline. Job gains registered mostly in the full-time category...

This Week's Market Reacts To Last Week's Market Surprises By The National Bank of Canada - Jul 10, 2012

Last week, which was shortened by civic holidays in Canada and the U.S., was nevertheless full of surprises. On Thursday the European Central Bank trimmed 25 basis points from its key interest rate,...

Canada: Business Survey To Be Interpreted With Caution By The National Bank of Canada - Jul 10, 2012

The Summer edition of the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey, which was conducted over the period May 22nd to June 14th, showed that Canadian businesses generally remained positive. The balance...

S&P 500 Index: Earnings Season Report By The National Bank of Canada - Jul 10, 2012

The U.S. S&P 500 index is initiating another reporting season this week with Alcoa (NYSE:AA) reporting earnings on Monday, July 9, 2012. Over 300 companies representing approximately 72% of...

Canadian Employment Rose In June By The National Bank of Canada - Jul 08, 2012

Facts: Total employment rose 7.3K in June following a similar gain of 7.7K jobs in May. Full-time jobs were up (+29.3K) while part-time jobs declined (-22.0K). The goods-producing sector was down...

World: China Rate Cuts Not Keeping Up With Disinflation By The National Bank of Canada - Jul 08, 2012

Central banks are reacting to the dismal data released in recent days that suggest a contraction in global factory activity. In China, the one-year lending rate was unexpectedly cut by 31 basis points...

U.S. Employers Are Shifting Back To Part-Time Work By The National Bank of Canada - Jul 08, 2012

U.S. payroll employment disappointed yet again in June with a net increase of only 80,000 jobs. The three-month cumulative gain for the private sector stands at 274,000 jobs, the weakest showing since...

Plunging New Orders And Rising Inventories Means Less Jobs In The U.S. By The National Bank of Canada - Jul 04, 2012

The official U.S. manufacturing PMI released by the ISM unexpectedly dropped below 50 in June for the first time in three years (reading of 49.7). The bulk of the drop was accounted for by a plunge in...

Eurozone Lives To See Another Day By The National Bank of Canada - Jul 04, 2012

The agreement among major leaders at June’s EU summit on how to address the current crisis is welcome news. That lowers the probability of the European economic and financial crisis spiralling...

FX Snapshot: Summit Outcome Offers Short-Term Gains By The National Bank of Canada - Jul 03, 2012

Major NewsTo the surprise of most market pundits, the 19th European Summit had a positive outcome, at least for the short-term, and helped calm global markets as well as Spain’s and...

Monthly Equity Monitor By The National Bank of Canada - Jul 02, 2012

Europe remains the world’s weakest link as the euro zone tries to manage an increasingly difficult polarization of the economic and financial landscape within its borders. After more than two...