The National Bank of Canada Analysis

World: Economic Picture Darkens By The National Bank of Canada - Jul 02, 2012

On the whole, global economic indicators continue to,disappoint. Industrial production retreated in April and,leading indicators point to no more than modest,growth in May. The world economy is dogged...

Canada: LFS May Be Overstating Job Gains This Year By The National Bank of Canada - Jul 01, 2012

Hours (SEPH) which surveys establishments (as,opposed to the Labour Force survey, which surveys,households), showed that Canada gained 13,500,jobs in April. That compares with the 66,600,increase in...

Quebec: Real GDP Up 0.6% In Q1 By The National Bank of Canada - Jul 01, 2012

FACTS: Quebec real GDP expanded at 0.6% annualized,in Q1 (Canada 1.9%), after a gain of 0.8% in Q4 (Canada,1.9%). Final domestic demand grew at 1.2% in Q1 (top,chart – Canada 1.3%). Real...

Canadian GDP Expands In April By The National Bank of Canada - Jul 01, 2012

FACTS: Canadian GDP grew 0.3% in April (top chart),one tick higher than consensus expectations. The,goods sector expanded 0.8%, with gains in mining and,energy more than offsetting declines in...

U.S.: Inventory Overhang For Business Investment Goods By The National Bank of Canada - Jun 29, 2012

The U.S. economy is showing tangible signs of an inventory overhang for business investment goods. According to just-released data, new orders for nondefence capital goods excluding aircraft rose for...

Provincial Economic Outlook - Summer 2012‏ By The National Bank of Canada - Jun 28, 2012

In Canada, we expect economic growth to moderate to 1.9% in 2012 and 2.0% in 2013. Domestic demand is expected to slow, with government retrenchment in spending growth and investment acting as a drag,...

Home Price Inflation Decelerates To 5.8% In May By The National Bank of Canada - Jun 28, 2012

Facts: On a y/y basis, the Teranet–National Bank,National Composite House Price IndexTM rose 5.8% in May (top chart), a deceleration from April’s print of 5.9%. Over the 11 metropolitan...

Canada's Consumer Price Index Dipped 0.1% MoM In May By The National Bank of Canada - Jun 27, 2012

Canada – In May, Canada’s consumer price index,dipped 0.1% month over month, 0.2% in seasonally adjusted terms. Over 12 months, the all-items CPI was up 1.2%, compared with 2% the month...

FX Snapshot: Week Of June 25-29, 2012 By The National Bank of Canada - Jun 27, 2012

Major News this WeekMr. Bernanke and the Federal Reserve met last week. Essentially, Mr. Bernanke and his colleagues decided to extend Operation Twist (program to reduce long-term interest rates)...

Canadian Retail Sales Fell 0.5% In April By The National Bank of Canada - Jun 24, 2012

Facts: Canadian retail sales fell 0.5% in April, well below consensus expectations (top chart). There were lower sales in 8 of the 11 subsectors. Auto dealership revenues fell 1.2%. But even excluding...

Canada: How Disruptive Are The New Mortgage Rules? By The National Bank of Canada - Jun 24, 2012

On June 20, the Canadian government announced further adjustments to the rules for government-backed insured mortgages. The most important measure is unquestionably the reduction of the maximum...

Canada: Inflation Drops In May By The National Bank of Canada - Jun 24, 2012

Facts: Headline CPI inflation declined to 1.2% y/y in May from 2.0% y/yin April. Core CPI inflation was also down to 1.8% y/y from 2.1% y/y a month before. On a monthly basis, headline CPI was down...

FOMC Squeezing Operation Twist Until The Last Drop By The National Bank of Canada - Jun 21, 2012

The Fed left interest rates unchanged near zero and reiterated that exceptionally low levels for the Fed funds rate can be expected through late 2014. Given the apparent weaker economic backdrop, new...

U.S. Fed Is Twisting To Exhaustion, Can QE Be Far Behind? By The National Bank of Canada - Jun 21, 2012

The Federal Reserve opted to extend Operation Twist through the year-end in order to fight against the current economic deceleration. In essence, the Fed is pledging to do the twist to exhaustion...

April: Exports Down Sharply By The National Bank of Canada - Jun 21, 2012

Facts: The Institut de la statistique du Québec reports that Quebec’s trade deficit widened $711 million in April to $1.94 billion (top chart). The value of exports fell $350 million...

World: Politicians Pledge To Act, But Can They? By The National Bank of Canada - Jun 20, 2012

The European Council president said that he was confident that the newly elected Greek government will stick to the terms of the bailout agreed earlier. EU leaders also seem optimistic about the...

Economic Indicators Review: More Weakness Across The Globe By The National Bank of Canada - Jun 19, 2012

Canada – The economic calendar was light this week. In 2012Q1, capacity utilization increased 0.2 percentage point to 80.7%. This was one percentage point higher than 12 months earlier but still...