The National Bank of Canada Analysis

Post-Election Mexico Remains A Buy By The National Bank of Canada - Aug 03, 2012

Bottom line: Despite concerns about the newly elected government, continued drug cartel violence, and the wave of resource nationalism sweeping much of Latin America, we reiterate our view that...

Most G20 Countries In Contraction Territory In July By The National Bank of Canada - Aug 02, 2012

The US ISM manufacturing index came out below expectation inching up to 49.8 (from 49.7) with the second sub-50 print for new orders (48.0) suggesting no quick rebound. The struggling manufacturing...

FOMC: No New Initiatives Yet But Ready To Act As Needed By The National Bank of Canada - Aug 02, 2012

The Fed left interest rates unchanged near zero and reiterated that exceptionally low levels for the fed funds rate can be expected through late 2014. There was little change to the statement. The Fed...

Canadian GDP Edged Up 0.1% In May By The National Bank of Canada - Aug 01, 2012

FACTS: Real GDP rose 0.1% in May, after increasing 0.3% in April (top chart). Activity remained essentially unchanged in the goods producing sector (0.0%) after jumping 0.7% in the previous month....

Draghi Puts His Reputation On The Line To Help Spain By The National Bank of Canada - Aug 01, 2012

Yields to maturity of Spanish government bonds spiked last week when the province of Valencia asked the central government for financial support, confirming that not only Spain’s banks but also...

Provincial Economic Momentum Indexes By The National Bank of Canada - Jul 31, 2012

We have updated our in-house Provincial Economic Momentum Indexes. The index values synthesize growth rates of six monthly seasonally adjusted economic indicators.According to Ontario Ministry of...

Quebec: Trade Balance Improves In May By The National Bank of Canada - Jul 27, 2012

FACTS: The Institut de la statistique du Québec reports that Quebec’s trade deficit narrowed $533 million in May to $1.42 billion (top chart). The value of exports rose $251 million...

Canada: Home Price Inflation Decelerates To 5.4% In June By The National Bank of Canada - Jul 26, 2012

FACTS: On a y/y basis, the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM rose 5.4% in June (top chart), a deceleration from May’s print of 5.8%. Of the 11 metropolitan areas...

Canadian Retail Sales Increased 0.3% In May By The National Bank of Canada - Jul 25, 2012

FACTS: Retail sales increased 0.3% in May, following a 0.6% decline in April. Sales increased in 6 of 11 retail industries. Motor vehicles and parts sales were down 0.4%, after a 1.3% drop in April....

Forex Snapshot: Thin Week Ahead By The National Bank of Canada - Jul 24, 2012

Major News This WeekLast Friday, the inflation statistics unveiled by Canada fell below expectations. Indeed, inflation reached 1.5% in annualized terms, while economists had expected a reading of...

S&P/TSX Composite Index: Earnings Season Report By The National Bank of Canada - Jul 24, 2012

The Canadian S&P/TSX Composite index is entering another reporting season with 41 companies reporting earnings in the week ending July 27, 2012. 50 companies representing approximately 32% of...

Weekly Economic Indicators Review: July 23, 2012 By The National Bank of Canada - Jul 24, 2012

As widely expected, the Bank of Canada left the overnight rate unchanged at 1.00%. The BoC stuck to its guns by leaving intact in its statement the phrase "some modest withdrawal of the present...

World: Trade Improvements Fail To Spur Industrial Output By The National Bank of Canada - Jul 24, 2012

The latest CPB report showed global trade volumes soaring to a record high in May, so much so that second quarter growth is now tracking around 2% annualized. That said, we’re not celebrating...

BoC Revises July Monetary Policy Report Down By The National Bank of Canada - Jul 19, 2012

Following yesterday’s preamble, the Bank of Canada provided details about its downwardly revised outlook in the Monetary Policy Report. The Bank’s dovish tone about the global economy was...

Canadian Manufacturing Sales Fall Again In May By The National Bank of Canada - Jul 18, 2012

Facts: Canadian manufacturing shipments data for May showed a 0.4% decrease in nominal terms. That was much worse than the 0.6% increase which consensus expected. Compounding the bad news was the...

BoC Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged At 1.00% By The National Bank of Canada - Jul 18, 2012

BOC Retains Tightening Bias Despite Downgrades To Its Canadian Growth And Inflation ForecastsAs widely expected, the Bank of Canada (BoC) left interest rates unchanged at 1.00%. The BoC stuck to its...

Canada: Foreign Central Banks Increase Their CAD Assets In May By The National Bank of Canada - Jul 17, 2012

Foreigners were out to buy Canadian assets with a vengeance in May. According to Statistics Canada, more that $26 billion of bonds, money market paper and equities was bought in May, a new monthly...