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Quebec: Real GDP Up 0.6% In Q1

ByThe National Bank of Canada
Published 07/01/2012, 07:41 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM
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FACTS:

Quebec real GDP expanded at 0.6% annualized,in Q1 (Canada 1.9%), after a gain of 0.8% in Q4 (Canada,1.9%). Final domestic demand grew at 1.2% in Q1 (top,chart – Canada 1.3%). Real consumption was flat (Canada,+0.9%). Government current spending was down,0.5%, while government investment was up 9.4%.,Residential construction was down 0.6%. Business,investment was up 8.0% in nonresidential construction,and 13.5% in machinery and equipment. Inventory rebuilding,contributed to growth but international trade subtracted,from it. Real GDP of goods-producing industries at,basic prices fell 0.7% in Q1, with declines in all sectors –,a fourth consecutive pullback in electric power generation,,transmission and distribution (−4.0%), plus declines in,manufacturing (−1.1%), residential construction (−1.8%),mining (−24.6%) and agriculture, fishing and hunting,(−0.5%). Output of service industries expanded at 1.2%,,led by wholesale trade (+8.0%) and finance, insurance,,real estate and leasing services (+2.9%).

Quebec Real GDP up 0.6 in Q1
OPINION: Quebec’s real wage bill declined 1.2% in Q1,(Canada +1.5%). It was the worst showing since the end,of the last recession (middle chart), and helps explain the,flatness of consumer spending for the quarter. A decline,of the household saving rate to 1.0% (Canada 2.9%),does nothing to stimulate spending in Q2. Indeed, retail,sales declined in April. In Q1, fortunately, slack was,taken up by business investment, which made up almost,all the ground it lost in Q4. For the year as a whole, we,expect a good showing of business investment (though,corporate profits declined in Q1) and a contribution to,growth from international trade, for overall GDP growth,of 1.4%.
Wage bill
GDP growth

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