Bonds Analysis & Opinion

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators raised their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders...

The markets we use to monitor the economy (and those that influence it, which amounts to the same thing) have been tracking an economic slowdown since the 4th quarter of last year. That’s when...

Over the past few weeks the 10-year. to 3-month inversion shank. That portion of the curve is no longer inverted. So what?Fed PanicThe Fed will cut a minimum of 25 basis points on July 31. The Fed...

The widely discussed "everything bubble" is, in reality, a corporate junk bond bubble on steroids sponsored by the Fed. The highest grade AAA corporate bonds yield 2.75%. BBB-rated corporate bonds,...

Bond yields have been collapsing clear across the world. And if history is any guide, the rapid decline is a function of undeniable economic weakness.Consider the correlation between bond yields and...

It was far from the equivalent of Mario Draghi’s muscular “whatever it takes” comment in 2012, when the European Central Bank president famously outlined his resolve to save the...

Bund is trading in an uptrend, away from 2018 lows, and can see even more upside in the next couple of weeks or months, as we see the price at the start of a temporary wave IV correction. A wave IV is...

A large divergence between two fundamentally-correlated market prices is important because such a divergence usually will be closed via a big move in one or both prices. However, divergences sometimes...

Credit grew at an exceptionally fast pace in June mainly due to financing for infrastructure projects. The implication is that if there were no fiscal stimulus, the economy would be deteriorating. The...

This post was written exclusively for Investing.comIn recent weeks, investors have latched onto the yield curve, frenetically trying to decipher the cryptic message it may be sending, worried it may...

Italy’s borrowing costs tumbled on Thursday after an auction of short- and medium-term government bonds showed further evidence of strong demand for higher-yielding Italian debt.Italy paid the...

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified in Congress yesterday that a rate cut may be near. That’s music to the ears of the bond market because it offers more fuel for extending the...

Will the Fed lower interest rates? It's possible if they follow the yield on the 10-year note over the past 32 weeks. This chart shows that the yield on the TNX has declined 31% in the past 32 weeks....

There is an old adage that bulls get fat, bears get fat, but pigs get slaughtered. I guess that is another way of saying to not overstay your welcome on one side of the market and to know when to take...