Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Trump gives it, market takes it away. Less than 24 hours after markets rallied 1.5% on Trump's announcement to delayed US tariffs on a portion of the items due to be hit on Sept 1st, markets tumbled...

Stocks had another lousy day with the S&P 500, falling by almost 3%. If it makes you feel any better, the index is still higher than where it was on August 7. I can’t say all that much has...

I think Asia traders are a bit shell-shocked by the extent of the carnage overnight and not sure what to do with themselves today. However, trade volumes speak louder than words and those volumes are...

Bonds have had a dream run since bottoming late last year, particularly the longer end of the curve (I checked one popular longer-term U.S. treasury ETF and it was up almost 30% off the low point!)....

The focus today has been on the latest development in fixed income with the 2-year Treasury Yield rising above the 10-year Treasury Yield. This is an input in many economists' recession models and...

With a yield of about 1.62% and falling as this is being written, is there any reason to buy a 10-year Treasury note right now? Down from 2.7% at the end of 2018, the idea might seem as palatable as a...

Asset pricing is often mysterious as a source of figuring out exactly what Mr. Market is discounting, but in the case of bonds these days there’s no ambiguity about the crowd’s outlook....

Bond yields resumed their post-FOMC crash today after a weak two-day respite. Inversions strengthened across the board. Bond Yields Resume Post-FOMC Crash Interestingly, the...

Anti-VigilantesWe dimly remember when Japanese government debt traded at a negative yield to maturity for the very first time. This happened at some point in the late 1990s or early 2000ds in...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators raised their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets once again this week, according to the...

Interest rates have declined over 40% in the past 9-months. Could they be near a short-term low? Stocks most likely hope so. This chart looks at the yield on the 10-year note (TNX) over...

It was nearly five years ago, in late-2014, that I wrote a piece titled, “Here’s Why The Long Bond Could Be About To Blast Off.” At the time, I argued that the combination of...

The inverted yield curve is one of the more reliable recession indicators. I discussed it at length last December. At that point, we had not yet seen a full inversion. Now we have, and it appears the...