Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Another month and another record high in the stock market. Why are stock prices climbing to new highs? One major contributing factor is the accommodative monetary policy implemented by our...

SummaryOnce again, corporate net income is moving lower.The belly of the yield curve is still inverted.While the headline GDP report was positive, the internals were a bit weak. The purpose of the...

This year’s red-hot bond-market rally looks set for a new burst of bullish support if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates today, which is widely expected.US fixed income is already sizzling,...

The 8 Safest Bond ETFs That Actually Pay As we discussed with ARTFX, I don’t anticipate I’ll ever formally recommend one of these funds in CIR. Their total returns are unlikely...

The problem continues to be, I’m sure, is one of perception. Economists, politicians, and mostly central bankers have been saying for years that the real economy is the one you see in the...

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to trim interest rates tomorrow, and the prospect of low and possibly lower inflation in the months ahead is a key factor.The Treasury market’s implied...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:Large bond speculators increased their bearish net positions for a second straight week in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week,...

For all of 2019, I have been watching one analyst after another suggesting investors “fade” the rally in bonds. And, of late, these voices have been getting louder and louder, as I just...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators raised their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders...

The markets we use to monitor the economy (and those that influence it, which amounts to the same thing) have been tracking an economic slowdown since the 4th quarter of last year. That’s when...

Over the past few weeks the 10-year. to 3-month inversion shank. That portion of the curve is no longer inverted. So what?Fed PanicThe Fed will cut a minimum of 25 basis points on July 31. The Fed...

The widely discussed "everything bubble" is, in reality, a corporate junk bond bubble on steroids sponsored by the Fed. The highest grade AAA corporate bonds yield 2.75%. BBB-rated corporate bonds,...

Bond yields have been collapsing clear across the world. And if history is any guide, the rapid decline is a function of undeniable economic weakness.Consider the correlation between bond yields and...

It was far from the equivalent of Mario Draghi’s muscular “whatever it takes” comment in 2012, when the European Central Bank president famously outlined his resolve to save the...