ING Economic and Financial Analysis

It's crunch time for the UK and EU but we still believe a Brexit deal is unlikely. Elsewhere, further US data should provide more clues about the possibility of a Fed rate cutFour key Brexit questions...

Next week's data should confirm some weakness in the US and Canada - and could give us more insight into future rate cuts from both central banks. Also, there's more Brexit news on the way though we...

The new North America trade agreement is still awaiting ratification in the US and Canada. The IMF estimates that Canada will reap most of the benefits, which suggests the ratification will ultimately...

With Mario Draghi's time as ECB President approaching an end, it is time to reflect on his tenure. Communication is always key for central bankers, but for Draghi, his speeches will likely be...

Both key ISM surveys are pointing to a major slowdown in US growth rates. We are forecasting US GDP growth of 1.3% for 2020 versus a consensus estimate of 1.8% with the clear implication that the...

The ISM manufacturing index has dropped to a 10-year low as trade worries, weak global growth and a strong dollar weigh on the sector. Given the threat of contagion to other parts of the economy...

Lower inflation is bad news for the ECB but good news for the German economy Further slowdown. German headline inflation is losing more momentum and seems to be on its way to what European Central...

Expect UK PMIs to follow the global downtrend in the coming week while investors will be eyeing eurozone data to assess strength in the service sector. In the U.S., the September employment report is...

As Donald Trump faces the biggest test of his presidency so far, we take a fresh look at the chances of his re-election in 2020. In this latest update to our in-depth report, U.S. Politics Watch: Four...

A sharp fall in consumer sentiment is a surprise and may reflect recent equity market volatility and a spike in gasoline prices. A strong jobs market and rising pay will underpin sentiment and...

The increase in today's Ifo index is too little to take away fears of a further downward slide of the economyAnyone looking for a bit of shiver these days only needs to take a look at German macro...

Several Fed officials are scheduled to speak over the next week, but we're keen to hear what James Bullard will have to say. Expect more Brexit-deal chatter, though we think it is unlikely the PM will...

China has cut the one-year loan prime rate, which we think was a result of the very weak August activity data, especially fixed asset investments and industrial production. Another cut is expected in...

China's fixed asset investments and industrial production were very weak in August while retail sales growth was moderate. Even Premier Li Keqiang has said that 6% GDP growth will be hard to achieve....

This week will show whether Germany can actually do fiscal stimulusOver to you, Berlin. Next to the monetary stimulus 'big bang' and Mario Draghi’s new 'as long as it takes' proclamation, this...

“Mid-cycle easing” will remain the theme as the Federal Reserve delivers another 25bp interest rate cut on Wednesday. It will be justified as insurance to mitigate the trade and global...