ING Economic and Financial Analysis

Headline US inflation has risen from 0.2% year-on-year last May to 1.7% Wednesday, but it is barely half-way to the 3.5-4% area where we see it peaking. While officials remain broadly relaxed, we...

Reopening to a consumer boomIt has been a strong start to 2021 despite the ongoing Covid-19 restrictions.Robust manufacturing and construction numbers have been backed up by stellar consumer spending...

From bifurcation to ‘re-marriage’ within the nickel value chainThe nickel industry has always been on the cusp of change due to evolving technology in producing different types of nickel...

Beyond the macro story, aluminium has found some fresh momentumAluminum has fared well this year, with LME 3M prices gaining over 13% year-to-date. The market seems to have shrugged off stock building...

Inflation fears boost bullish bets in commoditiesThe commodities sector has been under the spotlight as macro investors pile into the asset class, with a particular focus on ‘green-tinted’...

Supply cuts speed up the tightening processThe additional supply cuts announced by Saudi Arabia at the start of the year have clearly helped to speed up the rebalancing of the oil market. The...

The UK will release inflation and retail data this week, and unsurprisingly with the country stuck in lockdown, both are likely to be relatively depressed. Headline CPI will remain heavily constrained...

A slow start to 2021The January US employment report shows that non-farm payrolls rose 49k (consensus 105k) while there were big downward revisions totaling—59k. This is clearly softer than...

Since the summer, a new divergence has characterized the economic performance of the eurozone. Not only has there been a decoupling of the manufacturing and service sectors, the manufacturing sector...

Headline US inflation has risen from 0.2% YoY last May to 1.4% today and is likely to sail well above 3% in coming months. The Fed have said they will “look through” a temporary spike, but...

COVID-19 has had limited impact on most telecom companies' operational performances and balance sheet strength thus far, but still, we expect 2021 to be another year of low-single-digit growth for the...

The pandemic reduced energy demand in 2020, but the energy markets will bounce back in 2021 as the global economy recovers.The European wind and solar markets are expected to provide solid growth of...

Trade disruption will deliver a sizable hit to UK manufacturing output this quarter while lingering uncertainty and potential instability surrounding the UK-EU trade deal will keep a lid on...

October retail sales disappoint but November and December should make up for the weak startGetting worse before it gets better. German retail sales dropped by 1.9% month-on-month in October, from 0%...

New ECB president Christine Lagarde gives her first policy speech but remains tight-lipped on monetary aspectsNew ECB president Christine Lagarde just gave her first official speech on policy at an...

Consumption and construction saved the economy from a technical recession in the third quarter. The second estimate of 3Q GDP growth confirmed that the German economy had indeed avoided a technical...