ING Economic and Financial Analysis

Despite signs of stabilisation in equity markets, sentiment could be quickly be underminedUSD: Renewed focus on the Fed this weekEquity markets are showing some signs of stabilisation after...

Russian GDP growth slowed from 2.7% year on year in 4Q18 to just 0.5% YoY in 1Q19, well below expectations. Unlike most commentators, we attribute this slowdown to a pause in the state CAPEX rather...

The rise of U.S.-China trade tensions will be the key theme next week. In the near-term, this is likely to dampen both sentiment and activity, and we may see this already reflected in the German IFO...

Investment, manufacturing and retail sales slowed in April. This could reflect that trade negotiations appeared to be progressing well in April, meaning the government could afford to slow down its...

Even though the industry contributed positively to GDP growth, thanks to a strong January, the declining trend in production has not abated.Industrial production fell by 0.3% in March, which was in...

The sell-off in risk assets has taken a pause but until a trade deal is done, investors will be reluctant to buy the dip.USD: Are stock markets telling Trump he pushed too hard?The sell-off in risk...

Short-term position adjustment could weigh on US assets this weekUSD: Washington could go all-in on protectionism this weekProspects of Washington extending tariffs to the entire range of Chinese...

The US increased tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods to 25% on Friday. We believe that China will retaliate in kind, with $30 billion worth of tariffs on US goods. This could happen either today...

Swing States win elections, and given the strong economic performance of the big 5, any challenger is immediately going to be on the defensiveThe economy, stupid?In our US Politics Watch: Presidential...

China's April credit data matched the smooth progress of trade talks last month. But as the trade tension increases, we expect faster loan growth to return.Loan growth dropped more than expected in...

Chinese foreign exchange reserves have fallen slightly, mainly as a result of the strong dollar. But this shouldn't mask the fact that there were some inflows into China's asset market too.The strong...

Your daily roundup of commodity news and ING viewsChinese oil imports growEnergyU.S. oil inventories: The API reported yesterday that U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 2.81MMbbls over the last...

Exports contracted 2.7% year-on-year in April while imports enjoyed a rise of 4.0% YoY. These numbers reflect the negative outlook for smart devices and automobile sales globally, and at the same show...

Strong industrial production data confirms our view of a positive surprise in next week's GDP data.German industrial production increased by 0.5% month-on-month in March, sending more positive signals...

Renewed volatility in USD/CNY, plus USD/TRY crossing 6 along with Wednesday’s South African elections suggests it could be a difficult few days for risk assets.USD: Trump’s last minute...

The development of the trade negotiation process should be long as China learns about the U.S.' negotiation tactics, and has a back-up from a policy-stimulated economy. Technology should be the focus...