ING Economic and Financial Analysis

BoC has kept the overnight rate at 1.75%. While global trade concerns remain a significant threat, better than predicted 2Q growth and higher wage and price inflation readings suggest a stable outlook...

Financial markets have taken Jerome Powell’s testimony as a signal that the Federal Reserve is fully on board for rate cuts. However, the statement is more nuanced and hints at a more cautious...

We expect the Bank of Canada to reiterate its "accommodative" stance. Broadly positive data should offset lingering trade uncertainty so we think the chances for a dovish shift are limited, but so too...

Everything you need to know about central bank policy around the world over the coming monthsOur central bank outlookFederal Reserve: Prevention versus cureA ceasefire has been called in the US-China...

A bit of relief. Both industrial production and exports sent tentative signs of life in May. The upside: the German economy is not falling off a cliff. The downside: the relief is too feeble to...

China's most recent foreign reserves show net inflows. How is this possible with the ongoing trade and technology war? Will net capital inflows affect the yuan exchange rate?Foreign reserves on the...

The outgoing president of the European Council, Donald Tusk, just announced a breakthrough in the seemingly endless negotiations between European leaders on how to fill the European top jobs. Europe...

Employment growth in the States is softening, but this is more to do with a lack of workers with the right skills to fill vacancies rather than any meaningful downturn in demand. Given the positive...

While the headline ISM manufacturing index was slightly better than hoped, the uncertainty caused by the protracted nature of US-China trade talks will continue to weigh on the US manufacturing...

We're not expecting any breakthroughs at the G20 summit between Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. ING's James Knightley says things could then go in one of two directionsNo deal...

China's industrial profit growth turned positive in May. But this was mainly due to fiscal stimulus in the form of higher infrastructure spending. We maintain our view that industrial profits, in...

Intensifying trade war fears and an inventory overhang are weighing on the manufacturing sector. Regional surveys suggest the national ISM manufacturing index will fall below the breakeven 50 level on...

With the eurozone economy stuck in a low growth, low inflation and low rates environment, it's really hard not to make 'Japanification' comparisons. If we're honest, the eurozone is probably already...

All eyes will be on the G20 Xi-Trump meeting next week, but even if both leaders are open to resuming talks, there are many bridges to cross before a deal is struck. We're confident that a resolution...

The central bank left policy unchanged in June. This was expected because interest rates are already low and pushing them down further would not have created a big enough marginal impact on credit...

The Fed has opened the door to rate cuts, but it may not be as aggressive as the market expects. For now, we're sticking to our recently revised forecast for rate cuts in September and December, but...