ING Economic and Financial Analysis

China announced liberalisation of its interest rate system on 17th August. This takes it one step closer to a free-floating currency but of course, progress will be slow. Net interest margins for...

Chinese industrial output reaches a 17-year low, echoing the recent slow credit growth. It's the result of the government opting for stability rather than speedy growth. But it also shows that without...

The economy shrank by 0.1% QoQ in the second quarter. Inevitably, the discussion about fiscal stimulus will get more heatedIt's official: the German economy shrank by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in the...

The current slowdown of the German economy is closely linked to problems in the automotive sector. What role does China play in all of this?The German economy appears to be stuck between solid...

China's exports were better than expected in July, even seeing positive growth. But we found some unusual export activity, which may have distorted the headline number China's export turnaround is...

The labour market is losing steam again, indicating that external woes are gradually leaving their mark on the domestic economy German unemployment increased by 59,200 in July (not seasonally...

We think any Federal Reserve policy loosening will be more modest than the market's current pricing. Confidence is strong, the US labour market remains incredibly tight; workers have the comfort of...

The U.S. economy is experiencing its longest expansion on record, but weaker external demand and trade tensions are risks to the outlook. A benign inflation backdrop allows the Federal Reserve room to...

The last talk before the ECB will have to walk the walk. It now increasingly looks as if the September meeting will not only bring a single measure but rather a package of several measuresAs if it...

Germans are losing their optimism. The drop in the Ifo index increases the risk of a negative sentiment loopStill no silver linings for the German economy. The just-released most prominent leading...

The ECB is just about likely to stay on hold this week. We expect the dovish press conference, with guidance on a September rate cut and talk about QE, to weigh on the euro. The evolution of market...

U.S. GDP growth looks set to have slowed sharply in the second quarter of this year to 1.8% from 3.1% in1Q19. However, this reflects trade and inventory idiosyncrasies. It is not a broader...

With prime ministerial candidates promising tax cuts and a spending splurge, the latest fiscal numbers offer something of a reality check to their plans.UK government borrowing increased more than...

A new prime minister in the U.K., second-quarter GDP in the U.S. and a chance for some early action from the ECB, an exciting week ahead awaitsU.K.: New leader set to be announced as ‘no...

China's GDP growth has slumped to its slowest pace in almost three decades, as trade tensions weigh on sentiment and activity. While retail sales appear to be holding up so far, we see signs that the...

Credit grew at an exceptionally fast pace in June mainly due to financing for infrastructure projects. The implication is that if there were no fiscal stimulus, the economy would be deteriorating. The...