ING Economic and Financial Analysis

A potential U.S.-China trade deal could well be within touching distance and U.S. data should remain decent, both of which don't point towards a Fed rate cut this year. The first-quarter GDP report is...

While financial markets continue to price in rate cuts, the Federal Reserve is maintaining a cautiously upbeat tone that to us signals stable monetary policy through 2019.There were no real surprises...

The ISM manufacturing index has fallen to its lowest level since October 2016, which will only help to fuel slowdown fears. But with consumer spending looking in good shape and inflation likely to...

Demand for workers remains strong given the economy’s robust performance, yet the shrinking pool of available labour means competition for staff is intense. This is constraining employment...

The lower than expected manufacturing PMIs show new orders continuing to increase. By contrast, new export orders continued to shrink although at a slower rate. The government will keep the existing...

10-Year U..S bond yields are back below 2.50% as of writing this, despite strong GDP figures last week. This is not a bad backdrop for EM Asia.Asian FX a little weaker, but outlook calmThanks to...

If you can't tell already, next week is going to be a big week for developed markets. Major central bank meetings will take place, but it will be more about what policymakers say and not what they do...

Diverging signals from the main leading indicators in Germany underline the ongoing dichotomy between services and manufacturing but in our view are also a sign of stabilisation istock.Germany’s...

Iranian oil exports by destination (Mbbls/d)EnergyNo US waivers for Iranian oil: The US announced its intention yesterday not to extend waivers for buyers of Iranian crude oil, which are set to expire...

US retail sales bounced back strongly in March and jobless claims fell to new lows, boosting hopes for a 2.5% 1Q GDP reading next week.Upside risk for 1Q GDPUS retail sales surged 1.6% higher in March...

It's quite an interesting week ahead for developed markets: UK parliament returning from Easter recess could prompt May-Corbyn Brexit talks to get back up and running; an upbeat US 1Q GDP growth...

The US trade balance improved in February thanks to US companies cutting imports on assumption of a 1 January tariff hike that failed to materialise. This bodes well for 1Q GDP growthTrade boost for...

With a sizeable CNY 4 trillion fiscal stimulus and a monetary easing policy that has created 40% credit growth in 1Q19 alone, we expect the Chinese economy to grow above the 6% lower boundary target...

Exports jumped on seasonal factors while imports continued to shrink, with less demand for U.S. goods compared to a year ago. In coming months, we expect modest export growth as the base effect fades....

China's aggregate financing, which includes loans and other credit channels, amounted to CNY2.86 trillion in March alone. Loans comprised only a part of this, with the rest coming from the debt...

If you're going to take anything away from next week's data it's that - despite markets pricing in a Fed rate cut this year, economic fundamentals in the US are very much telling a different story. We...