ING Economic and Financial Analysis

A pretty woeful jobs report for April is likely more a reflection of structural rigidities and supply constraints rather than any meaningful weakening in demand for labour. The economy will regain all...

The threat of new trade wars is smaller, but tension hasn’t let up between the US, EU and China. Exporters continue to face higher costs and uncertainty that could weigh on trade growth after...

"Hey neighbour, here's $100. Give me back $91 in 10 years and you're good! Just pay me the inflation rate..." That's the negative real rates market of today, not in the inverted eurozone rates space,...

China's economic recovery seems to be sustainable, although the high GDP growth number was partly due to the low base effect. Given this background, the government has determined that the economy...

Falling Covid-19 prevalence and widespread vaccinations have boosted confidence in the durability of the recovery. Several data points are at post-pandemic highs and that suggests second-quarter...

Metals prices are flirting with record levels, agricultural markets are trading at multi-year highs, and oil has staged an impressive recovery. The post-Covid-19 recovery is clearly bullish for...

As many developed markets tentatively begin to emerge from the Covid-19 pandemic, attention is turning to taper and tightening in many economies. Here's what to expect from the major central banks...

Of the $4tn of extra spending proposed by President Biden, $2.2tn looks set to go on green and sustainability-related infrastructure investment. This won't on its own be enough to deliver on the...

The unprecedented stimulus has lifted US economic activity to within a touching distance of its pre-pandemic levels. President Biden isn't finished with more money on its way to complement a private...

UK PMIs, retail sales and other confidence data suggest that the reopening is boosting activity, but also that consumers and businesses are more optimistic about the durability of the recovery than...

An improved US household balance sheet and robust income growth supports consumer demand, while historically low inventories should keep order books very firm. This suggests the restocking cycle could...

A US economy littered with super-buoyant readings would typically place upward pressure on market rates. That is clearly not what is happening right now. The question is why? The Fed at zero and bond...

We blame the bond rally on geopolitical tensions, and on post-supply relief. It looks set to continue but deeply negative real rates lessen the pressure on the ECB to deliver a dovish message next...

Our EUR/USD profile is slightly dimmed, but we still expect the euro to rise from the ashes of European policy. CE4 currencies should also strengthen while the commodity bloc should remain supported....

We look through potential reasons for the April bounce in fixed income. A stubborn Fed and gloomy Eurozone outlook provide the best, if unsatisfactory, explanations. Upcoming US inflation data and...

OPEC+ surprised the market at the end of last week. Expectations heading into the meeting were that the group would rollover cuts. But instead the group has agreed to increase production by a little...