ING Economic and Financial Analysis

A US economy littered with super-buoyant readings would typically place upward pressure on market rates. That is clearly not what is happening right now. The question is why? The Fed at zero and bond...

We blame the bond rally on geopolitical tensions, and on post-supply relief. It looks set to continue but deeply negative real rates lessen the pressure on the ECB to deliver a dovish message next...

Our EUR/USD profile is slightly dimmed, but we still expect the euro to rise from the ashes of European policy. CE4 currencies should also strengthen while the commodity bloc should remain supported....

We look through potential reasons for the April bounce in fixed income. A stubborn Fed and gloomy Eurozone outlook provide the best, if unsatisfactory, explanations. Upcoming US inflation data and...

OPEC+ surprised the market at the end of last week. Expectations heading into the meeting were that the group would rollover cuts. But instead the group has agreed to increase production by a little...

Does a 1.7% US Treasury yield look right after Friday's payrolls report?This is a boom period for the US economy. Granted, it is all about emerging from a hole of Covid-19 induced despair, but it will...

The EU is missing a bridgeIt is well documented that Eurozone fundamentals do not support the type of reflation trade that is gripping US markets. When asked, most of us would instinctively mention...

Stimulus payments creates a strong platform for growthTo get any meaning out of the February personal income and spending report we need to look at it in combination with January data. The $600...

While the new administration took early steps to distance themselves from a number of policies of the Trump-era, a continuation of the strict stance on foreign currency mis-practices with specific...

The Fed makes a bold statement by removing a key emergency measure employed to support the banks and the systemA year ago the Federal Reserve gave US banks a break by allowing them to exclude holdings...

Sales fall, but don't worryRetail sales fell 3% month-on-month in February, which was weaker than the -0.5% MoM consensus figure, but it is important to point out that the $600...

A concession has built in emerging markets. The question is whether it is enough. The answer is, probably not. Synchronised global growth in the quarters ahead can and should prove supportive, as...

Germany: Prices set to increase furtherHouse prices in Germany don't seem to be showing any signs of levelling off. The year-on-year change in the statistical office’s house price index in 3Q20...

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has suggested that the Federal Reserve's position will remain resolutely supportive for growth. But with the reopening getting closer and fiscal stimulus adding...

The inflation figures were bang in line with expectations and may have disappointed a market that is fixated with rising inflation fears. Let's face it, 1.7% is hardly going to inflame concerns about...

Around a year ago, when Covid-19 was really hammering the US system and economy, the Federal Reserve decided to allow banks to buy Treasuries and hold deposits without regulatory restriction.At that...