ING Economic and Financial Analysis

China's official manufacturing PMI beat consensus in March. We believe this was mostly the result of fiscal stimulus on new infrastructure production, not a recovery from external demand. Since...

China's ongoing trade war with the US will hurt the jobs market and spending power. While this is being countered by stimulus measures, debt levels will increase. China's tourists have helped lower...

The labour market remains the best possible insurance against recession fears, even though very tentative signs of cooling have emerged.German unemployment dropped by 71,600 in March (not seasonally...

Key US data next week could confirm whether expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts are justified while business surveys and inflation data from Europe may offer clues about the ECB's next...

US 4Q GDP was revised down to 2.2% and 1Q19 growth is likely to be even lower. This will fuel talk of Fed rate cuts, but we still think there are reasons for optimism.4Q GDP revised down4Q US GDP has...

German headline inflation drops to its lowest level since April 2018 and undermines the ECB's hope for structurally higher inflation.According to the just-released first estimate based on the results...

German headline inflation drops to its lowest level since April 2018 and undermines the ECB's hope for structurally higher inflation.By Carsten Brzeski, Chief Economist ING Germany According to the...

US 4Q GDP was revised down to 2.2% and 1Q19 growth is likely to be even lower. This will fuel talk of Fed rate cuts, but we still think there are reasons for optimismBy James Knightley, ING Chief...

The US trade balance improved markedly in January to only -$51.1bn after companies cut imports on assumption of 1 January tariff hikes. That said, 'twin deficits' will be a key theme for the dollar...

Your daily roundup of commodity news and ING viewsICE (NYSE:ICE Brent May/June spread continues to strengthen (US$/bbl)EnergyUS crude oil inventories and Russia: Oil was well supported yesterday with...

Hong Kong's exports fell further in February. We think this is partly a Chinese New Year effect and partly a reflection of weak manufacturing due to trade tensions and the downward product cycle of...

Markets now pencilling in a full 25 basis point Fed funds rate cut this year. But in our view, there's limited scope for any imminent move down in US rates. As such, we think the dollar will stabilise...

USD: Mueller’s probe a USD positive as it reduces USD built up the risk premiumAsian equity markets caught up with Friday’s US and European sell-off. FX markets paused for breath...

Strong growth of world trade in the first month of what is probably likely to be a poor yearBy Timme Spakman, ING Economist, International Trade Analysis World trade grew by 2.3% in January 2019 and...

The March decline in the eurozone's PMI indicates the bloc's economic problems are far from over, as February's increase was taken as a sign of things bottoming out.The composite PMI for the eurozone...

You'd think we'd be fed up of Brexit by now, but as another week goes by, there is yet another vote, and we are all over it. UK Prime Minister Theresa May will have another go at pushing her Brexit...