Bonds Analysis & Opinion

There’s a lot of uncertainty about what a Trump presidency means for the US economy over the medium- and long-term horizons, but for the moment there’s nothing fuzzy about sentiment in the...

Bund has so far bottomed exactly at strong support at 159.85/75 but we also have important strong support again at 159.65/60. Within this 25 tick band is the best chance of an end to the 3 month bull...

“Destiny is not a matter of chance; it is a matter of choice. It is not a thing to be waited for; it is a thing to be achieved” – William Jennings Bryan, 1899 (Democratic candidate...

CFTC Weekly Commitment of Traders Report 10 Year Treasury Note Non-Commercial Positions: Large speculators and traders sharply decreased their net positions in the 10-year treasury note futures...

The markets in general are going through a rough patch. Some say it is because of the upcoming election, and they may be right. US Treasuries have had it rough for over 4 months at this point. Much...

A persistent phenomenon of the last couple of months has been the rise in inflation expectations, in particular market-based measures. The chart below (source: Bloomberg) shows that 10-year inflation...

One of the most significant market developments has been the rising bond yields. This has now been checked by the risk aversion spurred by new narrowing of the odds of a Clinton victory. The US...

The death of US Treasury bonds has been anticipated for at least 2 years. Ever since the Federal Reverse stated that they would stop pressing the accelerator pedal all the way to the floor, someone...

The most recent Daily Sentiment Reading (DSI) for Bonds is 12!Purely from a technical perspective, it is not usually a coincidence when TLT (the inverse of TBT) presses into extreme oversold condition...

Junk bonds are said to have an influence on stock prices as a leading indicator.If that's true, it may be worth paying attention to what Junk does this month. Junk Bond ETF JNK has been pushing...

CFTC Weekly Commitment of Traders Report 10 Year Treasury Note Non-Commercial Positions: Large speculators and traders reduced their net positions in the 10-year treasury note futures markets last...

The Federal Reserve meets during the first week of November to decide whether or not to increase interest rates. The probability of a rate hike in November stands at only 8.8% while increasing to...

Selloff in global bonds extended yesterday and sent US yields sharply higher. 10 year yield rose 0.053 to close at 1.843 after hitting at high at 1.870. The strong breakout from a near term range...