Bonds Analysis & Opinion

10-Year Yield: Short term Elliott wave count suggests that pullback to 1.542 at 9/28 ended wave X. The rally from there is unfolding as a zig zag where wave (a) ended at 1.77. The yields is now...

10-Year US notes are turning up after a completion of a five wave decline confirmed by current rise above the channel resistance line. As such, we think that new three wave recovery is now underway...

It appears there’s no shortage of investor love for municipal bond funds. September 28 was the 52nd straight week of inflows into state and local government debt, marking the second longest...

Heading into Friday's jobs report amid a barrage of increasingly hawkish comments from Fed heads about a forthcoming rate hike before year end, let's notice that the U.S. 10-year yield is pushing up...

Below looks at the government bond ETF TLT over the past 10 years. For the first seven months of this year, TLT rallied strongly. That rally took it to the top of its 10-year rising channel at (1),...

I’ve taken plenty of bond math classes. The best of them was in the summer of 2001 at Lehman Brothers. Lehman Brothers wasn’t going to teach a bad bond math class, not at the firm that...

The 10-Year Treasury Note’s term premium (an estimate of the extra compensation that the market demands for holding longer rather than shorter maturities) has been moderately negative for most...

To understand the financial markets, you need to understand the hierarchy of asset classes. That hierarchy is as follows:Globally, the stock market is about $69 trillion in size, trading about $191...

Though I highly doubt he will admit it, he’s just not the type, even Ben Bernanke knows on some level that bond market is decidedly against him, or at least his legacy. Economists have a funny...

A Market in Transition?The municipal bond market finally slowed down during 3Q2016, as shown in Tables 1 and 2. The muni market cheapened on both a nominal and a relative basis. Why? Some of this...

On Friday, the Wall Street Journal officially ran an obituary for the TED spread proclaiming: “The Ted Spread Is Dead, Baby. The Ted Spread Is Dead.” The article explains: This spread...

Marty Fridson, of Standard & Poor’s Global Market Intelligence, reported yesterday that on September 8 the difference between the yield on junk bonds and the company’s estimation of...

Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren recently rattled markets when he warned that low-interest rates were increasing the temperature of the U.S. economy, which now runs the risk of overheating. That...

Junk bonds are often viewed as leading indicators for the stock market. Rising junk prices are usually greeted by stocks in a positive way and weak junk prices are often viewed in a concerning...