Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Let's have a look at a long-term perspective on Treasury yields. The chart below shows the 10-Year Constant Maturity yield since 1962 along with the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) and inflation. The range...

TNX: Short term Elliott wave count suggests that pullback to 1.542 at 9/28 ended wave X. The rally from there looks to be unfolding as a 5 wave move and wave ((a)) is proposed complete at 1.801.Wave...

The prospect for a rate hike is resonating in the Treasury market. Is this another head fake? Or is the Federal Reserve truly ready to embrace another round of policy tightening?No one knows for sure...

The past twelve months have been an interesting time for US Treasury Bond investors. During that time there, has been an overhanging view that the Federal Reserve will raise rates as a next policy...

Interest rates over the past 10 years have bounced and created a series of lower highs. Is that trend of lower highs about to end?Below looks at the yield on the 10 year note over the past...

The US dollar gained against all of its G10 counterparts and the majority of emerging market currencies, as Chicago Fed Evans said that a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in December ‘would not...

10-Year US notes are turning up after a completion of a five wave decline confirmed by current rise above the channel resistance line. As such, we think that new three wave recovery is now underway...

It appears there’s no shortage of investor love for municipal bond funds. September 28 was the 52nd straight week of inflows into state and local government debt, marking the second longest...

Below looks at the government bond ETF TLT over the past 10 years. For the first seven months of this year, TLT rallied strongly. That rally took it to the top of its 10-year rising channel at (1),...

I’ve taken plenty of bond math classes. The best of them was in the summer of 2001 at Lehman Brothers. Lehman Brothers wasn’t going to teach a bad bond math class, not at the firm that...

Bond prices generally move with stock prices over the long term. Or at least that is what any of us have seen over the last 30 years. But it could be just a coincidence that a 30 year bull market in...

The 10-Year Treasury Note’s term premium (an estimate of the extra compensation that the market demands for holding longer rather than shorter maturities) has been moderately negative for most...

To understand the financial markets, you need to understand the hierarchy of asset classes. That hierarchy is as follows:Globally, the stock market is about $69 trillion in size, trading about $191...

You can find any answer you want by comparing the current curve to various points in its history. Over the past 30 trading days, for instance, the curve is more or less unchanged. But comparisons over...