Bonds Analysis & Opinion

After many false promises and one false start, it is becoming evident that 2017 will be the year the Federal Reserve finally begins down the road toward interest-rate normalization. Therefore, it is...

10 Year Treasury Note Non-Commercial Positions: Large speculators and traders sharply reduced their bearish net positions in the 10-year treasury note futures markets last week, according to the...

Remember 2014 when the Fed said that it would need to start thinking about removing stimulus? I know, I know, I cant remember dinner last night either. But when that happened there was a flood of...

Note: We've updated this commentary with data through today's market close.Let's take a closer look at US Treasuries in recent weeks. The yield on the 10-year note ended today at 2.49% and the 30-year...

The market euphoria brought on by President-elect Trump (rising equity markets and bond yields) has now moved on to the reality of President Trump. The spadework of working with Congress to move his...

10 Year Treasury Note Non-Commercial Positions: Large speculators and traders reduced their bearish net positions in the 10-year treasury note futures markets last week for the first time in four...

Note: We've updated this commentary with data through Friday's market close.Let's take a closer look at US Treasuries in recent weeks. The yield on the 10-year note ended Friday at 2.48% and the...

The Treasury market’s implied inflation forecast via 10-year yields touched 2.0% on Wednesday (January 18) for the first time in more than two years as Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen gave an...

A number of websites e.g. Bloomberg, Zero Hedge, have been pointing to the extreme build up in short positioning in Treasury futures by speculators. Indeed, Zero Hedge zeros in on the apparent 4...

10 Year Treasury Note Non-Commercial Positions: Large speculators and traders continued to bet against the 10-year treasury note in the futures markets last week, according to the latest Commitment of...

Zerohedge has an interesting post out today called Treasury Specs Are So Short, It Is Now A 4 Sigma Event. Let’s take a look at his charts and a couple of mine.According to the latest breakdown...

My work has triggered preliminary signals that TBT's September-December upleg correction ended at Thursday's January 12 low of 38.19 and that a new upleg has commenced.Notice that the 24-hour upmove...

US Treasuries are facing a triple threat from market technicals. Rising off of the July 2015 low, TLT completed a 3-Drives pattern in July 2016. The following reversal retraced 88.6% of the pattern...

The US 10-year yield fell briefly below 1.32% last July. The yield slowly rose to reach 1.80% in mid October. The day after the election, the yield initially slipped to almost 1.71%. This was a bit...