Bonds Analysis & Opinion

ZN has been Working on a Bottom Since December 1 – Here’s Where We Find Out Whether It’s an Inverse H&S or Megaphone Bottom. The 10-year Treasury bill has been working on a...

Note: We've updated this commentary with data through yesterday's market close.Let's take a closer look at US Treasuries since last week. The yield on the 10-year note ended yesterday at 2.42% and the...

10 Year Treasury Note Non-Commercial Positions:Large speculators resumed adding to bearish net positions in the 10-Year treasury note futures markets last week, according to the latest Commitment of...

The rise of interest rates in Europe has seen premiums over Germany increase. This is not unusual. Often the intra-European spreads are sensitive to the underlying direction of rates. The premiums...

My intermediate and longer term technical set-up work on U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield argues that benchmark yield is in transition from a 35-year bear Market (dominant downtrend) into a multi-year bull...

After many false promises and one false start, it is becoming evident that 2017 will be the year the Federal Reserve finally begins down the road toward interest-rate normalization. Therefore, it is...

Remember 2014 when the Fed said that it would need to start thinking about removing stimulus? I know, I know, I cant remember dinner last night either. But when that happened there was a flood of...

Note: We've updated this commentary with data through today's market close.Let's take a closer look at US Treasuries in recent weeks. The yield on the 10-year note ended today at 2.49% and the 30-year...

10 Year Treasury Note Non-Commercial Positions: Large speculators and traders reduced their bearish net positions in the 10-year treasury note futures markets last week for the first time in four...

Let's have a look at a long-term perspective on Treasury yields. The chart below shows the 10-Year Constant Maturity yield since 1962 along with the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) and inflation. The range...

Note: We've updated this commentary with data through Friday's market close.Let's take a closer look at US Treasuries in recent weeks. The yield on the 10-year note ended Friday at 2.48% and the...

The Treasury market’s implied inflation forecast via 10-year yields touched 2.0% on Wednesday (January 18) for the first time in more than two years as Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen gave an...

We had a number of Fed speakers this past week. Philly Fed President Lacker stated, “The economy is displaying considerable strength.” Regarding the employment situation, he approvingly...

A number of websites e.g. Bloomberg, Zero Hedge, have been pointing to the extreme build up in short positioning in Treasury futures by speculators. Indeed, Zero Hedge zeros in on the apparent 4...