Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Leave it to the government to screw things up. As the Zero Economy trudges forward, more and more distortions are rippling through the world of money.You can thank the world’s money maestros....

Many people might have the impression that the top 1 percent of society—those making over $521,411—deal mainly in exotic investments such as derivatives, fine art and rare French...

For those who are willing to see it, there is strong evidence that reasonably persistent seasonal trends exist in the stock market (see here).But what about the bond market? Do seasonal trends exist...

Junk bonds are often viewed as leading indicators for stocks. Below looks at junk bond ETF JNK and the technical hurdles it faces. When junk bonds turned weak in 2014, stocks struggled to move much...

Despite last month’s slightly lower employment growth (jobs had a $151,000 net gain), it’s still highly probable the Fed will increase rates by year-end. While they are sensitive to the...

Several readers asked me to comment on the possibility of a yield cure inversion. An inversion occurs when shorter term rates have a higher yield than longer dated rates. Typically this is a strong...

We are looking for a final top to the massive bond bull market that began in 1981. While it is possible the final top is in place, I am leaning to one final marginal high before everything goes belly...

Near term U.S. 10-Year note yield outlook:In the Aug 25th email, affirmed the viewed of gains above the July 21st high at 1.63%, but warned that the "pivotal", longer term bearish trendline from Jan...

Yesterday’s upbeat report on consumer spending and income in the US provides fresh support for last week’s moderately hawkish comments from Fed officials, who hinted that another...

Good prospects for the 10-year note. source: Investing.com

Having talked about cash, let’s now add negative rates to the calculus an investor must perform.With a positive rate, we can compute the sensitivity of a bond’s price to a change in an...

At Rory’s prescient behest, we have been way out in front of the curve on the Silk Road and on the issue of China using the IMF to push aside the dollar as the reserve currency. Casey Research...

10 Year Treasury Note Non-Commercial Positions: Large 10-year treasury note futures traders and speculators trimmed their overall bullish positions last week for a second consecutive week, according...

CFTC Futures data shows speculators decreased bullish bets last week U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note Non-Commercial Positions: Large 10-year treasury note futures traders and speculators reduced their...