Bonds Analysis & Opinion

A Market in Transition?The municipal bond market finally slowed down during 3Q2016, as shown in Tables 1 and 2. The muni market cheapened on both a nominal and a relative basis. Why? Some of this...

On Friday, the Wall Street Journal officially ran an obituary for the TED spread proclaiming: “The Ted Spread Is Dead, Baby. The Ted Spread Is Dead.” The article explains: This spread...

Marty Fridson, of Standard & Poor’s Global Market Intelligence, reported yesterday that on September 8 the difference between the yield on junk bonds and the company’s estimation of...

Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren recently rattled markets when he warned that low-interest rates were increasing the temperature of the U.S. economy, which now runs the risk of overheating. That...

Junk bonds are often viewed as leading indicators for the stock market. Rising junk prices are usually greeted by stocks in a positive way and weak junk prices are often viewed in a concerning...

The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury closed at around 1.68% yesterday, but judging by the haughty commentary surrounding global bond markets you would be forgiven if you thought it was 2.68%. Since...

Many people might have the impression that the top 1 percent of society—those making over $521,411—deal mainly in exotic investments such as derivatives, fine art and rare French...

For those who are willing to see it, there is strong evidence that reasonably persistent seasonal trends exist in the stock market (see here).But what about the bond market? Do seasonal trends exist...

Despite last month’s slightly lower employment growth (jobs had a $151,000 net gain), it’s still highly probable the Fed will increase rates by year-end. While they are sensitive to the...

Several readers asked me to comment on the possibility of a yield cure inversion. An inversion occurs when shorter term rates have a higher yield than longer dated rates. Typically this is a strong...

If there is one major theme that pervades the financial markets this year, it’s the shift from stocks to bonds. You can romanticize the momentum in gold stocks. You can peek at emerging-market...

We are looking for a final top to the massive bond bull market that began in 1981. While it is possible the final top is in place, I am leaning to one final marginal high before everything goes belly...

Near term U.S. 10-Year note yield outlook:In the Aug 25th email, affirmed the viewed of gains above the July 21st high at 1.63%, but warned that the "pivotal", longer term bearish trendline from Jan...

If a bond has a negative yield, then the bondholders will lose their money on their investment. In the long run, their expectations are lower and consequently they lose the incentive to...