Bonds Analysis & Opinion

10 Year Treasury Note Non-Commercial Positions: Large speculators and traders sharply reduced their bearish net positions in the 10-year treasury note futures markets last week, according to the...

Remember 2014 when the Fed said that it would need to start thinking about removing stimulus? I know, I know, I cant remember dinner last night either. But when that happened there was a flood of...

Note: We've updated this commentary with data through today's market close.Let's take a closer look at US Treasuries in recent weeks. The yield on the 10-year note ended today at 2.49% and the 30-year...

The market euphoria brought on by President-elect Trump (rising equity markets and bond yields) has now moved on to the reality of President Trump. The spadework of working with Congress to move his...

10 Year Treasury Note Non-Commercial Positions: Large speculators and traders reduced their bearish net positions in the 10-year treasury note futures markets last week for the first time in four...

Let's have a look at a long-term perspective on Treasury yields. The chart below shows the 10-Year Constant Maturity yield since 1962 along with the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) and inflation. The range...

The Treasury market’s implied inflation forecast via 10-year yields touched 2.0% on Wednesday (January 18) for the first time in more than two years as Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen gave an...

We had a number of Fed speakers this past week. Philly Fed President Lacker stated, “The economy is displaying considerable strength.” Regarding the employment situation, he approvingly...

10 Year Treasury Note Non-Commercial Positions: Large speculators and traders continued to bet against the 10-year treasury note in the futures markets last week, according to the latest Commitment of...

Zerohedge has an interesting post out today called Treasury Specs Are So Short, It Is Now A 4 Sigma Event. Let’s take a look at his charts and a couple of mine.According to the latest breakdown...

My work has triggered preliminary signals that TBT's September-December upleg correction ended at Thursday's January 12 low of 38.19 and that a new upleg has commenced.Notice that the 24-hour upmove...

US Treasuries are facing a triple threat from market technicals. Rising off of the July 2015 low, TLT completed a 3-Drives pattern in July 2016. The following reversal retraced 88.6% of the pattern...

The US 10-year yield fell briefly below 1.32% last July. The yield slowly rose to reach 1.80% in mid October. The day after the election, the yield initially slipped to almost 1.71%. This was a bit...

If you've been long bonds since July of 2015, it/s been a long and hard 6 months, as bond prices have fallen hard and yields have shot up. Could rates be peaking and bond prices at their lows? For...