Bonds Analysis & Opinion

There is great trepidation in the bond market these days. Most investors seem to have the “interest-rates-are-sure-to-rise” mantra playing on auto loop. And this is not entirely...

Markets are rather quite in recent weeks. Is that a new trend or the calm before the storm?As the month of April comes to an end, the month-to-date returns on key assets are almost neutral. Against...

10 Year Treasury Note Non-Commercial Positions: Large speculators and traders sharply increased their bets in favor of the 10-year treasury notes after being on the short side of this market for...

It's a bit strange and mysterious that the bond market really didn't react to the weak GDP figures.Is it possible that the markets baked-in their expectations? Aside from the GDP headlines, the...

Yesterday’s article caused quite a stir.The basic premise is that when you value the stock market based on objective metrics that cannot be fudged, it’s more overpriced than it was at the...

The Trump administration unveiled their tax plan yesterday, with details to follow. It will take a while to work the plan through Congress but this is our quick take on how the plan affects municipal...

The yield on the 10-yr. US Treasury note gained 0.22% last week closing at 22.37 but 14-day RSI remains below its own 20-dma; bearish. The break of support at 23.35 (now resistance) has opened a door...

10 Year Treasury Note Non-Commercial Positions: Large speculators continued to cut back on their bearish net positions in the 10-year treasury note futures markets last week, according to the latest...

Doug Kass wrote a very interesting piece this week on the bond market: As overvalued as I believe the U.S. stock market may be, fixed-income instruments may be even more overvalued. Yesterday the...

Is there a threat to the municipal bond interest deduction?The new administration’s focus on tax reform, especially as many of us pay our federal and state taxes this week, draws our attention...

Let's have a look at a long-term perspective on Treasury yields as of Friday's close. The chart below shows the 10-Year Constant Maturity yield since 1962 along with the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) and...

When I was a kid we had to go to an arcade, where they had many pleasure machines, to play a game called pinball. It is a novelty now at places where my kids go to birthday parties and in the age of...

Note: We've updated this commentary with data through yesterday's market close.Let's take a closer look at recent activity in US Treasuries. The yield on the 10-year note ended the day at 2.26% and...

From Bill Hall: If you are a regular reader of my Money and Markets columns, you know that I’m a big believer in three things.One, Occam’s Razor, which is a principle that was introduced...