Bonds Analysis & Opinion

We’ve had seven client/consultant/prospect speeches and meetings in the last week. The hottest topic has been the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and what changes in it will mean for...

I read an article recently that noted the 65-75bp rise in Treasury yields over the last year or so, and sought to explain, through a labyrinthine line of reasoning/model, that most of the rise was due...

Sometimes things in the financial markets are pretty obvious if one is willing to see them. Despite all of the angst that has been exhausted since July of 2016 – when the S&P 500 Index broke...

Note: We've updated this commentary with data through today's market close.Let's take a closer look at recent activity in US Treasuries. The yield on the 10-year note ended the day at 2.39% and the...

10 Year Treasury Note Non-Commercial Positions: Large speculators and traders decreased their bullish net positions in the 10-year treasury note futures markets last week, according to the latest...

A majority of Federal Reserve officials expect that conditions will warrant two more hikes this year. That would put the Fed funds target range at 1.25%-1.50% at year-end. Yet the two-year note yields...

Markets are rather quite in recent weeks. Is that a new trend or the calm before the storm?As the month of April comes to an end, the month-to-date returns on key assets are almost neutral. Against...

10 Year Treasury Note Non-Commercial Positions: Large speculators and traders sharply increased their bets in favor of the 10-year treasury notes after being on the short side of this market for...

Yesterday’s article caused quite a stir.The basic premise is that when you value the stock market based on objective metrics that cannot be fudged, it’s more overpriced than it was at the...

The Trump administration unveiled their tax plan yesterday, with details to follow. It will take a while to work the plan through Congress but this is our quick take on how the plan affects municipal...

The support and resistance levels and the trends (or lack thereof) that a trader sees on a chart can vary greatly depending on the time period covered in the chart. In other words, a 1-minute bar...

The yield on the 10-yr. US Treasury note gained 0.22% last week closing at 22.37 but 14-day RSI remains below its own 20-dma; bearish. The break of support at 23.35 (now resistance) has opened a door...

10 Year Treasury Note Non-Commercial Positions: Large speculators continued to cut back on their bearish net positions in the 10-year treasury note futures markets last week, according to the latest...

Note: We've updated this commentary with data through today's market close.Let's take a closer look at recent activity in US Treasuries. The yield on the 10-year note ended the day at 2.21% and the...