Bonds Analysis & Opinion

We consider 10-year yields as a leading indicator for both stock markets and bond markets because it is a risk indicator. That indicator is now on the verge of a tactical breakdown, and, hence, a...

Please note that the title includes the word “Simple” but does NOT include the words “Best”, “Infallible”, “World”, “Beater”, nor...

Look, we are all wrong sometimes. That's because the markets are this way one day, that way the next and then something else the day after that. That is why we need bigger picture plans.I for...

As can be seen from the following long-term view of 10- and 30-year bonds (monthly charts), each is facing an imminent decision...whether to break fairly substantial major support at their current...

Is The Trump Trade Overcrowded And On The Ropes?Given the Trump trade is based on expectations for reduced regulation, lower taxes, and faster economic growth, if investors had moved all their chips...

It is now clear that the Federal Reserve will be increasing interest rates this year. Therefore, it seems appropriate to look at the yield curve, specifically the 10-year and 3-month spread, to...

The talking heads continue to say that yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note cannot and will not trade above the 2.60 percent level. It should be noted that the 2.60 level has been resistance since...

Our favorite leading indicator for stock markets is 10-year yields. On its very long-term chart we spot a potentially extremely disruptive event: a trend change after four decades. This could become...

This future is providing some key opportunities with the pivotal price today. It’s about time!! After earlier lows at 150.28 found that price 151.03 for a spot on high, it followed with a move...

There may be credit challenges in public finance; but for the fifth year in a row, per S&P, upgrades outpaced downgrades.Healthcare bill update: Without enough votes in the House of...

Note: We've updated this commentary with data through today's market close.Let's take a closer look at US Treasuries. The yield on the 10-year note ended today at 2.38% and the 30-year bond closed at...

The Fed’s consensus is now for additional rate hikes. Cleveland President Mester – who is a non-voting member – argued for 3 rate hikes this year in addition to a reduction in the...

10 Year Treasury Note Non-Commercial Positions: Large speculators sharply decreased their bearish net positions in the 10-year treasury note futures markets last week for the third straight week,...

Many Mish readers have been asking about US treasury yields.Are yields going up or down? My fearless forecast is yes, yes, and yes. A series of charts will explain. US Treasury Yield Curve Chart...