Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Contributing to the stock market’s agita so far this year has been the prospect that the 10-year US Treasury Bond Yield may be on the verge of rising above 3.00%, a level that for some reason is...

Iflationistas think a major inflationary move is at hand and they bet that with futures. I suggest the opposite. A commitment of traders (COT) report for 10-year treasuries shows record bets that...

The markets are moving into their first MAJOR inflationary shift in TEN years.Perhaps the single best metric for measuring inflation vs. deflation in the bond markets is the TIPs to Long US Treasury...

April has come to a close and there are fresh monthly charts to review. The markets have had a roller coaster ride during the first 4 months of 2018. This has resulted in the cadre of pundits getting...

For first time in over four years, the 10-year Treasury rate surpasses three percent, only to raise the possibility that this is as high as it is going to go at least in the short term.After several...

In early March, the 10-year yield was circling 2.87%. Now it is circling 3.00% for the first time in 4 years.The increase is probably shocking to many analysts and investors. Neither economic nor...

The big market news on April 24th was the 10-year US Treasury yield went above 3%. While there is nothing magic, per se, about the 3% level on this benchmark government bond ( it is actually quite low...

It seems everyone is talking about the yield curve right now. It also seems most economists and investors are quick to dismiss what would typically signal a clear economic warning as nothing worth...

Note: We've updated this commentary with data through today's market close.Let's take a closer look at recent activity in US Treasuries. The yield on the 10-year note ended Tuesday at 3.03% and the...

The benchmark 10-year Treasury rate edged up to 3.0% yesterday (April 24) for the first time since 2014, based on daily data published by Treasury.gov. It’s just another number, but the...

The discussion today is much about the 10yr Treas rate breaching above 3%. Higher rates can have an impact on asset prices when compared to Cash Flow Yields as shown in the Dow Jones REIT (DJR) vs...

This week, we're looking at some fresh flash economic data: The Markit flash PMIs. Using GDP weights we can construct a "global flash PMI" and the reason for doing so will become obvious very quickly....

Interest rates have been falling for nearly three decades. Could the trend of lower rates be over? A big test to this trend is in play right now! Above looks at 10 and 30-year yields since early...

I was updating some of my bond strategy charts this morning and one that caught my eye that I thought would be timely and interesting to share is the seasonality charts. No, not the "sell in May"...